Southwest Airlines Stock Price Prediction

LUV Stock  USD 29.19  0.08  0.27%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Southwest Airlines' share price is below 30 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Southwest Airlines, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

26

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Southwest Airlines stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Southwest Airlines shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Southwest Airlines' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Southwest Airlines and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Southwest Airlines' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Southwest Airlines, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Southwest Airlines' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.30)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.27)
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.63
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.35
Wall Street Target Price
31.27
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Southwest Airlines based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Southwest stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Southwest Airlines over a specific investment horizon. Using Southwest Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southwest Airlines from the perspective of Southwest Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Southwest Airlines using Southwest Airlines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Southwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Southwest Airlines' stock price.

Southwest Airlines Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Southwest Airlines' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Southwest. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Southwest Airlines stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Southwest Airlines may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Southwest Airlines and may potentially protect profits, hedge Southwest Airlines with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
30.1523
Short Percent
0.0334
Short Ratio
1.99
Shares Short Prior Month
19.3 M
50 Day MA
31.4408

Southwest Airlines Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Southwest Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwest Airlines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Southwest Airlines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Southwest Airlines.

Southwest Airlines Implied Volatility

    
  26.98  
Southwest Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwest Airlines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwest Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwest Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwest Airlines' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Southwest Airlines. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Southwest Airlines to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Southwest because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Southwest Airlines after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 29.19  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Southwest contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Southwest Airlines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.69% per day over the life of the 2024-04-05 option contract. With Southwest Airlines trading at USD 29.19, that is roughly USD 0.49 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Southwest Airlines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Southwest Airlines options at the current volatility level of 26.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Southwest Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Southwest Stock please use our How to Invest in Southwest Airlines guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwest Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.6730.4333.19
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
28.1330.8833.64
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
28.0030.7734.15
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.5-0.310.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Southwest Airlines. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Southwest Airlines' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Southwest Airlines' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Southwest Airlines.

Southwest Airlines After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Southwest Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southwest Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southwest Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Southwest Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Southwest Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southwest Airlines' historical news coverage. Southwest Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.43 and 31.95, respectively. We have considered Southwest Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
29.19
29.19
After-hype Price
31.95
Upside
Southwest Airlines is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southwest Airlines is based on 3 months time horizon.

Southwest Airlines Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southwest Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southwest Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southwest Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
2.77
  0.01 
  0.03 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
29.19
29.19
0.00 
3,462  
Notes

Southwest Airlines Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March Southwest Airlines is traded for 29.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Southwest is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Southwest Airlines is about 875.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.22. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Southwest Airlines has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.57. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of March 2024. The firm had 3:2 split on the 16th of February 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Southwest Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Southwest Stock please use our How to Invest in Southwest Airlines guide.

Southwest Airlines Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Southwest Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southwest Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how Southwest Airlines rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southwest Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
KLTRKaltura 0.06 8 per month 0.00 (0.20) 6.02 (5.67) 18.58 
UBERUber Technologies 1.55 10 per month 1.42  0.09  2.83 (2.52) 18.39 
TMCITreace Medical Concepts 0.88 10 per month 2.60  0.01  6.26 (4.22) 14.01 
CALTCalliditas Therapeutics(0.07)6 per month 0.00 (0.15) 5.03 (4.29) 18.03 
VMDViemed Healthcare 0.43 4 per month 2.53  0.05  4.76 (3.63) 13.27 
TGANTransphorm Technology(0.03)12 per month 0.46  0.1  1.88 (1.01) 26.87 
CRKTCirmaker Technology 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
MASS908 Devices(0.29)7 per month 0.00 (0.07) 7.43 (7.04) 34.58 

Southwest Airlines Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Southwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Southwest Airlines Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Southwest Airlines stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Southwest Airlines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Southwest Airlines based on analysis of Southwest Airlines hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Southwest Airlines's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Southwest Airlines's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02320.02080.0219
Price To Sales Ratio1.610.711.08

Story Coverage note for Southwest Airlines

The number of cover stories for Southwest Airlines depends on current market conditions and Southwest Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southwest Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southwest Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Southwest Airlines Short Properties

Southwest Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Southwest Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southwest Airlines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southwest Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southwest Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding640 M
Cash And Short Term Investments11.5 B
When determining whether Southwest Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Southwest Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Southwest Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Southwest Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Southwest Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Southwest Stock please use our How to Invest in Southwest Airlines guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Southwest Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Southwest Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwest Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Southwest Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwest Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwest Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwest Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Southwest Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southwest Airlines. If investors know Southwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southwest Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.30)
Dividend Share
0.72
Earnings Share
0.76
Revenue Per Share
43.85
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.105
The market value of Southwest Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southwest Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southwest Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southwest Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southwest Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southwest Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southwest Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southwest Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.