Medical Properties Trust Stock Price Prediction
| MPW Stock | USD 4.74 0.75 18.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Medical Properties Trust stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Medical Properties shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Medical Properties' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Medical Properties and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Medical Properties' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Medical Properties Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Medical Properties' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.16 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.41 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.52 | Wall Street Target Price 4.53 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Medical Properties based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Medical stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Medical Properties over a specific investment horizon. Using Medical Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medical Properties Trust from the perspective of Medical Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Medical Properties using Medical Properties' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Medical using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Medical Properties' stock price.
Medical Properties Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Medical Properties' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Medical. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Medical Properties stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Medical Properties may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Medical Properties and may potentially protect profits, hedge Medical Properties with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.5818 | Short Percent 0.4802 | Short Ratio 9.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 196.1 M | 50 Day MA 4.017 |
Medical Properties Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Medical Properties' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Medical. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Medical can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Medical Properties Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Medical Properties' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Medical Properties.
Medical Properties Implied Volatility | 140.14 |
Medical Properties' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Medical Properties Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Medical Properties' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Medical Properties stock will not fluctuate a lot when Medical Properties' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Medical Properties. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Medical Properties to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Medical because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Medical Properties after-hype prediction price | USD 4.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Medical contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Medical Properties Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 8.76% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Medical Properties trading at USD 4.74, that is roughly USD 0.42 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Medical Properties' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Medical Properties Trust options at the current volatility level of 140.14%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Medical |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Medical Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Medical Properties After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Medical Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medical Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medical Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Medical Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Medical Properties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medical Properties' historical news coverage. Medical Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.24 and 9.45, respectively. We have considered Medical Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Medical Properties is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medical Properties Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Medical Properties Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Medical Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medical Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medical Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.81 | 4.73 | 0.02 | 1.34 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.74 | 4.72 | 0.42 |
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Medical Properties Hype Timeline
On the 16th of April 2024 Medical Properties Trust is traded for 4.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.34. Medical is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.81%. The volatility of related hype on Medical Properties is about 285.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.40. About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.31. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Medical Properties Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.93. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.93. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Medical Properties Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Medical Properties Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Medical Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medical Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how Medical Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medical Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBRA | Sabra Healthcare REIT | 0.14 | 8 per month | 1.51 | (0.03) | 2.29 | (2.74) | 7.18 | |
| LTC | LTC Properties | (0.30) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.60 | (1.89) | 6.11 | |
| DOC | Healthpeak Properties | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.71 | (3.12) | 7.68 | |
| NHI | National Health Investors | (1.18) | 10 per month | 1.46 | 0.04 | 1.90 | (2.30) | 10.94 | |
| OHI | Omega Healthcare Investors | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.22 | (0.02) | 2.00 | (2.25) | 9.81 | |
| VTR | Ventas Inc | (1.14) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.47 | (2.70) | 7.72 | |
| GMRE | Global Medical REIT | (0.37) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.35 | (3.92) | 9.81 | |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust | 0.45 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.86 | (3.36) | 11.26 | |
| PEAK | PEAK Old | (16.22) | 9 per month | 10.01 | 0.12 | 4.76 | (3.61) | 102.41 | |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT | (0.25) | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.05 | 1.98 | (2.49) | 10.30 | |
| CHCT | Community Healthcare Trust | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.13 | (2.50) | 9.62 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | (1.31) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.19 | (3.46) | 8.41 |
Medical Properties Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Medical price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medical using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medical charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Medical Properties Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Medical Properties stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Medical Properties Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Medical Properties based on analysis of Medical Properties hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Medical Properties's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Medical Properties's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0462 | 0.1 | 0.21 | 0.22 | Price To Sales Ratio | 9.01 | 4.32 | 3.37 | 3.2 |
Story Coverage note for Medical Properties
The number of cover stories for Medical Properties depends on current market conditions and Medical Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medical Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medical Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Medical Properties Short Properties
Medical Properties' future price predictability will typically decrease when Medical Properties' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Medical Properties Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Medical Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medical Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 598.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 250 M |
Check out Medical Properties Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Complementary Tools for Medical Stock analysis
When running Medical Properties' price analysis, check to measure Medical Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medical Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Medical Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medical Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medical Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medical Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Medical Properties' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Medical Properties. If investors know Medical will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Medical Properties listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share (0.93) | Revenue Per Share 1.48 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of Medical Properties Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Medical that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Medical Properties' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Medical Properties' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Medical Properties' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Medical Properties' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Medical Properties' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Medical Properties is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Medical Properties' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.