Netease Stock Price Prediction
| NTES Stock | USD 92.50 2.56 2.85% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
34
Oversold | Overbought |
NetEase stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of NetEase shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of NetEase's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of NetEase and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from NetEase's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with NetEase, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting NetEase's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.674 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.55 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.21 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.94 | Wall Street Target Price 134.76 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of NetEase based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The NetEase stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on NetEase over a specific investment horizon. Using NetEase hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NetEase from the perspective of NetEase response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NetEase using NetEase's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NetEase using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NetEase's stock price.
NetEase Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NetEase's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NetEase. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NetEase stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long NetEase may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about NetEase and may potentially protect profits, hedge NetEase with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 103.1634 | Short Percent 0.0185 | Short Ratio 2.45 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 104.102 |
NetEase Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NetEase's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NetEase. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NetEase can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NetEase. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NetEase's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NetEase.
NetEase Implied Volatility | 132.68 |
NetEase's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NetEase stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NetEase's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NetEase stock will not fluctuate a lot when NetEase's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in NetEase. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NetEase to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NetEase because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NetEase after-hype prediction price | USD 92.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NetEase contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NetEase will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 8.29% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With NetEase trading at USD 92.5, that is roughly USD 7.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NetEase's daily price movement you should consider acquiring NetEase options at the current volatility level of 132.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
NetEase |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NetEase's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NetEase After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NetEase at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NetEase or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NetEase, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NetEase Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NetEase's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NetEase's historical news coverage. NetEase's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.05 and 94.89, respectively. We have considered NetEase's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NetEase is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NetEase is based on 3 months time horizon.
NetEase Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NetEase is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NetEase backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NetEase, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.42 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
92.50 | 92.47 | 0.03 |
|
NetEase Hype Timeline
NetEase is now traded for 92.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. NetEase is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 92.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on NetEase is about 825.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.48. The book value of the company was now reported as 193.45. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.93. NetEase recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.25. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of March 2024. The firm had 5:1 split on the 2nd of October 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out NetEase Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NetEase Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NetEase's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NetEase's future price movements. Getting to know how NetEase's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NetEase may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NTDOY | Nintendo Co ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.38 | (2.61) | 8.76 | |
| PLTK | Playtika Holding Corp | (0.27) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.16 | (3.52) | 19.98 | |
| DDI | Doubledown InteractiveCo | (0.61) | 9 per month | 3.93 | 0.05 | 9.27 | (6.47) | 32.79 |
NetEase Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NetEase price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NetEase using various technical indicators. When you analyze NetEase charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NetEase Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NetEase stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NetEase, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NetEase based on analysis of NetEase hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NetEase's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NetEase's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008133 | 0.0206 | 0.0185 | 0.011 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.92 | 3.39 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Story Coverage note for NetEase
The number of cover stories for NetEase depends on current market conditions and NetEase's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NetEase is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NetEase's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
NetEase Short Properties
NetEase's future price predictability will typically decrease when NetEase's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NetEase often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NetEase's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NetEase's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 673.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 117.5 B |
Check out NetEase Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NetEase Stock please use our How to Invest in NetEase guide.Note that the NetEase information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NetEase's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Complementary Tools for NetEase Stock analysis
When running NetEase's price analysis, check to measure NetEase's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NetEase is operating at the current time. Most of NetEase's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NetEase's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NetEase's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NetEase to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing |
Is NetEase's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NetEase. If investors know NetEase will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NetEase listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.674 | Dividend Share 18.187 | Earnings Share 6.25 | Revenue Per Share 160.841 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.07 |
The market value of NetEase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NetEase that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NetEase's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NetEase's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NetEase's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NetEase's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NetEase's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NetEase is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NetEase's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.