Northern Trust Stock Price Prediction
| NTRS Stock | USD 79.56 4.15 4.96% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
64
Oversold | Overbought |
Northern Trust stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Northern Trust shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Northern Trust's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Northern Trust and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Northern Trust's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Northern Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Northern Trust's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.42 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.91 | Wall Street Target Price 90.77 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Northern Trust based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Northern stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Northern Trust over a specific investment horizon. Using Northern Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northern Trust from the perspective of Northern Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northern Trust using Northern Trust's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northern Trust's stock price.
Northern Trust Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Northern Trust's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Northern. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Northern Trust stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Northern Trust may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Northern Trust and may potentially protect profits, hedge Northern Trust with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 77.6258 | Short Percent 0.0115 | Short Ratio 1.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 82.8862 |
Northern Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Northern Trust's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Northern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northern Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northern Trust's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northern Trust.
Northern Trust Implied Volatility | 72.22 |
Northern Trust's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northern Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northern Trust's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northern Trust stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northern Trust's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Northern Trust. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Northern Trust to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Northern because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Northern Trust after-hype prediction price | USD 79.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northern contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northern Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.51% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Northern Trust trading at USD 79.56, that is roughly USD 3.59 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northern Trust's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northern Trust options at the current volatility level of 72.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Northern |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northern Trust After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northern Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northern Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northern Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northern Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northern Trust's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northern Trust's historical news coverage. Northern Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 77.95 and 81.17, respectively. We have considered Northern Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northern Trust is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northern Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northern Trust Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northern Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northern Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
79.56 | 79.56 | 0.00 |
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Northern Trust Hype Timeline
Northern Trust is now traded for 79.56. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Northern is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Northern Trust is about 203.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 79.56. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.55. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Northern Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.08. The firm last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2024. Northern Trust had 2:1 split on the 10th of December 1999. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Northern Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Northern Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northern Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northern Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how Northern Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northern Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| V | Visa Class A | 1.51 | 8 per month | 0.92 | (0.01) | 1.27 | (1.40) | 4.97 | |
| DB | Deutsche Bank AG | 0.05 | 7 per month | 1.26 | 0.1 | 2.93 | (2.15) | 10.46 |
Northern Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Northern Trust Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Northern Trust stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Northern Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northern Trust based on analysis of Northern Trust hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Northern Trust's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Northern Trust's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0251 | 0.0432 | 0.0379 | 0.0398 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.8 | 2.73 | 1.44 | 1.37 |
Story Coverage note for Northern Trust
The number of cover stories for Northern Trust depends on current market conditions and Northern Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northern Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northern Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northern Trust Short Properties
Northern Trust's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northern Trust's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northern Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northern Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 207.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 B |
Check out Northern Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Northern Stock please use our How to Invest in Northern Trust guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for Northern Stock analysis
When running Northern Trust's price analysis, check to measure Northern Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Trust is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northern Trust's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Trust. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Trust listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 3 | Earnings Share 5.08 | Revenue Per Share 32.565 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 |
The market value of Northern Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.