Old National Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| ONB Stock | USD 16.47 0.01 0.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
Old National Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Old National shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Old National's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Old National and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Old National's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Old National Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Old National's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.46 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.04 | Wall Street Target Price 19.79 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Old National based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Old stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Old National over a specific investment horizon. Using Old National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old National Bancorp from the perspective of Old National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old National using Old National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old National's stock price.
Old National Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Old National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Old. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Old National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Old National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Old National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Old National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 15.7393 | Short Percent 0.0526 | Short Ratio 6.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 11 M | 50 Day MA 16.414 |
Old National Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Old National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Old. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old National Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old National.
Old National Implied Volatility | 24.82 |
Old National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old National's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Old National. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Old National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Old because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Old National after-hype prediction price | USD 16.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Old |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Old National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Old National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old National's historical news coverage. Old National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.51 and 18.41, respectively. We have considered Old National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.47 | 16.46 | 0.00 |
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Old National Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Old National Bancorp is traded for 16.47. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Old is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Old National is about 1238.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.47. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.94. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Old National Bancorp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.45. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of March 2024. The firm had 105:100 split on the 3rd of January 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Old National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Old National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old National's future price movements. Getting to know how Old National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMNF | HMN Financial | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.93 | (2.07) | 10.38 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.07 | (2.94) | 7.98 | |
| RBKB | Rhinebeck Bancorp | 0.47 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.53 | (2.73) | 19.17 |
Old National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Old National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Old National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Old National Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Old National based on analysis of Old National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Old National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Old National's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.031 | 0.0359 | 0.0367 | 0.0242 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.69 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 3.86 |
Story Coverage note for Old National
The number of cover stories for Old National depends on current market conditions and Old National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Old National Short Properties
Old National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 291.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 430.9 M |
Check out Old National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Complementary Tools for Old Stock analysis
When running Old National's price analysis, check to measure Old National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Old National is operating at the current time. Most of Old National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Old National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Old National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Old National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Old National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old National. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 1.94 | Revenue Per Share 6.061 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Old National Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.