Patrick Industries Stock Price Prediction
| PATK Stock | USD 103.40 0.76 0.74% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Patrick Industries stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Patrick Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Patrick Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Patrick Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Patrick Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Patrick Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Patrick Industries' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.98 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.62 | Wall Street Target Price 119.13 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Patrick Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Patrick stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Patrick Industries over a specific investment horizon. Using Patrick Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Patrick Industries from the perspective of Patrick Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Patrick Industries using Patrick Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Patrick using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Patrick Industries' stock price.
Patrick Industries Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Patrick Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Patrick. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Patrick Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Patrick Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Patrick Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge Patrick Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 91.665 | Short Percent 0.0761 | Short Ratio 5.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 112.7908 |
Patrick Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Patrick Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Patrick. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Patrick can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Patrick Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Patrick Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Patrick Industries.
Patrick Industries Implied Volatility | 57.94 |
Patrick Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Patrick Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Patrick Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Patrick Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Patrick Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Patrick Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Patrick Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Patrick because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Patrick Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 103.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Patrick contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Patrick Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.62% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Patrick Industries trading at USD 103.4, that is roughly USD 3.74 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Patrick Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Patrick Industries options at the current volatility level of 57.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Patrick Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Patrick Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Patrick Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Patrick Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Patrick Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Patrick Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Patrick Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Patrick Industries' historical news coverage. Patrick Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 101.51 and 105.07, respectively. We have considered Patrick Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Patrick Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Patrick Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Patrick Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Patrick Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Patrick Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Patrick Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.76 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
103.40 | 103.29 | 0.11 |
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Patrick Industries Hype Timeline
Patrick Industries is at this time traded for 103.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Patrick is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 103.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 115.03%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Patrick Industries is about 2656.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.40. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Patrick Industries was at this time reported as 47.17. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. Patrick Industries recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of February 2024. The firm had 3:2 split on the 11th of December 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Patrick Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Patrick Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Patrick Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Patrick Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Patrick Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Patrick Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LZB | La Z Boy Incorporated | 0.76 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.39 | (2.96) | 8.04 | |
| NTZ | Natuzzi SpA | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.56 | (2.62) | 8.46 | |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries | 0.13 | 9 per month | 1.87 | 0.03 | 2.45 | (3.41) | 10.95 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | 0.22 | 8 per month | 1.69 | 0.09 | 3.57 | (2.98) | 11.30 | |
| BSET | Bassett Furniture Industries | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.04 | (2.77) | 10.63 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | (0.68) | 11 per month | 2.09 | 0.20 | 5.59 | (3.89) | 20.17 | |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands | 0.55 | 7 per month | 3.15 | 0.03 | 6.27 | (6.10) | 20.75 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | (0.57) | 9 per month | 1.65 | 0.06 | 2.75 | (2.70) | 8.02 |
Patrick Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Patrick price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Patrick using various technical indicators. When you analyze Patrick charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Patrick Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Patrick Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Patrick Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Patrick Industries based on analysis of Patrick Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Patrick Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Patrick Industries's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0147 | 0.0245 | 0.0123 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.65 |
Story Coverage note for Patrick Industries
The number of cover stories for Patrick Industries depends on current market conditions and Patrick Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Patrick Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Patrick Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Patrick Industries Short Properties
Patrick Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Patrick Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Patrick Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Patrick Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Patrick Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.4 M |
Check out Patrick Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Patrick Stock please use our How to buy in Patrick Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Patrick Stock analysis
When running Patrick Industries' price analysis, check to measure Patrick Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Patrick Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Patrick Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Patrick Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Patrick Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Patrick Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Patrick Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Patrick Industries. If investors know Patrick will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Patrick Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 1.9 | Earnings Share 6.5 | Revenue Per Share 161.162 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
The market value of Patrick Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Patrick that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Patrick Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Patrick Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Patrick Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Patrick Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Patrick Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Patrick Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Patrick Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.