Principal Financial Group Stock Price Prediction

PFG Stock  USD 86.07  1.58  1.87%   
The relative strength indicator of Principal Financial's the stock price is roughly 60 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 28th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Principal, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

60

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Principal Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Principal Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Principal Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Principal Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Principal Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Principal Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Principal Financial's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.74
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.6
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.4
Wall Street Target Price
81.9
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Principal Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Principal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Principal Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using Principal Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Principal Financial Group from the perspective of Principal Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Principal Financial using Principal Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Principal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Principal Financial's stock price.

Principal Financial Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Principal Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Principal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Principal Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Principal Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Principal Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Principal Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
76.3876
Short Percent
0.0151
Short Ratio
2.72
Shares Short Prior Month
3.1 M
50 Day MA
80.1844

Principal Financial Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Principal Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Principal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Principal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Principal Financial Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Principal Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Principal Financial.

Principal Financial Implied Volatility

    
  19.88  
Principal Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Principal Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Principal Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Principal Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Principal Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Principal Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Principal Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Principal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Principal Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 86.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Principal contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Principal Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.24% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Principal Financial trading at USD 86.07, that is roughly USD 1.07 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Principal Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Principal Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 19.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Principal Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Principal Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
67.8168.8094.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
86.4387.4388.42
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.8175.6283.94
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.611.761.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Principal Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Principal Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Principal Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Principal Financial.

Principal Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Principal Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Principal Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Principal Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Principal Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Principal Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Principal Financial's historical news coverage. Principal Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 85.05 and 87.03, respectively. We have considered Principal Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
86.07
86.04
After-hype Price
87.03
Upside
Principal Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Principal Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Principal Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Principal Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Principal Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Principal Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
0.99
  0.03 
  0.01 
8 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
86.07
86.04
0.03 
550.00  
Notes

Principal Financial Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Principal Financial is traded for 86.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Principal is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 86.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Principal Financial is about 3193.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.06. About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.83. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Principal Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of March 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Principal Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Principal Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Principal Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Principal Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Principal Financial rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Principal Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PSEC-PAProspect Capital 0.00 0 per month 1.66 (0) 2.57 (2.65) 11.87 
STT-PGState Street 0.00 0 per month 0.37 (0.15) 0.80 (0.62) 3.18 
GGN-PBGAMCO Global Gold 0.00 0 per month 0.85 (0.10) 1.41 (1.79) 4.31 
OCCINOFS Credit 0.00 0 per month 0.38 (0.20) 0.98 (0.72) 3.10 
OCCIOOFS Credit 0.00 0 per month 0.51 (0.16) 0.64 (0.70) 4.17 
GECCOGreat Elm Capital(0.31)4 per month 0.52 (0.18) 1.12 (1.07) 3.46 
ATCO-PDAtlas Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.79 (0.06) 1.72 (1.29) 4.94 
ATCO-PHAtlas Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.43 (0.05) 1.17 (1.11) 2.76 
OAK-PAOaktree Capital Group 0.00 0 per month 0.77  0.06  1.95 (1.36) 5.65 
OAK-PBOaktree Capital Group 0.00 0 per month 0.70  0.04  1.60 (1.33) 4.66 

Principal Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Principal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Principal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Principal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Principal Financial Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Principal Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Principal Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Principal Financial based on analysis of Principal Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Principal Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Principal Financial's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio12.314.4330.4617.5
Short Term Coverage Ratios40.3439.3262.0731.98

Story Coverage note for Principal Financial

The number of cover stories for Principal Financial depends on current market conditions and Principal Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Principal Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Principal Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Principal Financial Short Properties

Principal Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Principal Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Principal Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Principal Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Principal Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding244.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments27.2 B
When determining whether Principal Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Principal Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Principal Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Principal Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Principal Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Principal Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Principal Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

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When running Principal Financial's price analysis, check to measure Principal Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Principal Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Principal Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Principal Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Principal Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Principal Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Principal Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Principal Financial. If investors know Principal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Principal Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
Dividend Share
2.6
Earnings Share
2.55
Revenue Per Share
56.634
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.15)
The market value of Principal Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Principal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Principal Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Principal Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Principal Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Principal Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Principal Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Principal Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Principal Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.