American Mutual Fund Price Prediction Breakdown

RERBX -  USA Fund  

USD 68.88  0.24  0.35%

American Funds - fund price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Funds shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Funds' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Funds and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Funds' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Funds -, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at American Funds Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Funds based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Funds over a specific investment horizon. Using American Funds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Funds - from the perspective of American Funds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Funds. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Funds to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Funds after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 68.87  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Funds in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
67.8168.6169.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
68.0168.8169.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
68.7269.0369.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Funds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Funds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Funds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Funds -.

American Funds After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Funds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Funds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of American Funds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

American Funds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Funds' mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Funds' historical news coverage. American Funds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.07 and 69.67, respectively. We have considered American Funds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
68.88
19th of September 2021
68.87
After-hype Price
69.67
Upside
American Funds is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Funds - is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Funds Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as American Funds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Funds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Funds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.03  0.80  0.01   0.00  5 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
68.8868.870.01 
285.71  

American Funds Hype Timeline

American Funds - is at this time traded for 68.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. American is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 68.87. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next newsis expected to be -0.01% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on American Funds is about 533.33% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 68.88. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.73. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. American Funds - next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 19th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 5 days.
Additionally, take a look at American Funds Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Funds Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Funds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Funds' future price movements. Getting to know how American Funds rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Funds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Goldman Sachs Gqg 0.15 2 per month 0.81 (0.0031)  1.42 (1.16)  3.55 

American Funds Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Funds Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Funds stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Funds -, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Funds based on analysis of American Funds hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Funds's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Funds's related companies.

Story Coverage note for American Funds

The number of cover stories for American Funds depends on current market conditions and American Funds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Funds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Funds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Additionally, take a look at American Funds Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Funds - information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Funds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Funds - price analysis, check to measure American Funds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Funds is operating at the current time. Most of American Funds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Funds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Funds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Funds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Funds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Funds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Funds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.