Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction
| SUPN Stock | USD 30.26 0.31 1.04% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Supernus Pharmaceuticals' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Supernus Pharmaceuticals, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Supernus Pharmaceuticals' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.38 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.64 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.95 | Wall Street Target Price 40.5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Supernus stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Supernus Pharmaceuticals over a specific investment horizon. Using Supernus Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Supernus Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Supernus Pharmaceuticals using Supernus Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Supernus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Supernus Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Supernus. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Supernus Pharmaceuticals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Supernus Pharmaceuticals and may potentially protect profits, hedge Supernus Pharmaceuticals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 29.0833 | Short Percent 0.1327 | Short Ratio 9.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 31.2702 |
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Supernus Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Supernus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Supernus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Supernus Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Supernus Pharmaceuticals.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 58.54 |
Supernus Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Supernus Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Supernus Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Supernus Pharmaceuticals. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Supernus Pharmaceuticals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Supernus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 30.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Supernus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Supernus Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.66% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Supernus Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 30.26, that is roughly USD 1.11 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Supernus Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Supernus Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 58.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Supernus |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Supernus Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Supernus Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Supernus Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Supernus Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Supernus Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Supernus Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.80 and 32.94, respectively. We have considered Supernus Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Supernus Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Supernus Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Supernus Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Supernus Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Supernus Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.59 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.26 | 30.37 | 0.36 |
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Supernus Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Supernus Pharmaceuticals is at this time traded for 30.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Supernus is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Supernus Pharmaceuticals is about 1523.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.28. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 607.52 M. Net Income was 1.32 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 580.02 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Supernus Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Supernus Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Supernus Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Supernus Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Supernus Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Supernus Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PBH | Prestige Brand Holdings | 0.92 | 11 per month | 0.84 | 0.12 | 2.03 | (1.96) | 11.76 | |
| EVO | Evotec SE ADR | 0.05 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.10 | (4.16) | 13.79 | |
| COLL | Collegium Pharmaceutical | 1.18 | 10 per month | 2.00 | 0.03 | 3.25 | (4.04) | 15.90 | |
| DCPH | Deciphera Pharmaceuticals LLC | (0.12) | 10 per month | 2.46 | 0.02 | 4.84 | (4.32) | 17.94 | |
| EGRX | Eagle Pharmaceuticals | (0.40) | 10 per month | 4.87 | 0.03 | 8.00 | (7.92) | 23.10 | |
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals | 0.69 | 12 per month | 1.23 | 0.09 | 2.58 | (1.93) | 14.17 | |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health | (0.16) | 5 per month | 2.11 | 0.11 | 4.29 | (3.37) | 14.25 | |
| PCRX | Pacira Pharmaceuticals | (0.28) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.68 | (2.89) | 10.08 | |
| RDY | Dr Reddys Laboratories | 0.37 | 9 per month | 1.02 | (0.01) | 1.66 | (1.73) | 6.93 | |
| SSIC | Silver Spike Investment | (0.32) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.19 | 4.64 | (2.50) | 11.33 | |
| RGC | Regencell Bioscience Holdings | (0.06) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 16.04 | (11.49) | 43.02 |
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Supernus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Supernus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Supernus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Supernus Pharmaceuticals Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Supernus Pharmaceuticals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals based on analysis of Supernus Pharmaceuticals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Supernus Pharmaceuticals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Supernus Pharmaceuticals's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 0.64 | 0.91 | 85.86 | 90.16 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 417.99 | 383.08 | 167.54 | 159.16 |
Story Coverage note for Supernus Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Supernus Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Supernus Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Supernus Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Supernus Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Supernus Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Supernus Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Supernus Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Supernus Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Supernus Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Supernus Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 254.9 M |
Check out Supernus Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Supernus Stock, please use our How to Invest in Supernus Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Supernus Stock analysis
When running Supernus Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Supernus Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Supernus Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Supernus Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Supernus Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Supernus Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Supernus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Supernus Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Earnings Share 0.02 | Revenue Per Share 11.14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0056 |
The market value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Supernus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Supernus Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Supernus Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Supernus Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Supernus Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Supernus Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Supernus Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Supernus Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.