Ulta Beauty Stock Price Prediction
| ULTA Stock | USD 425.11 0.56 0.13% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
26
Oversold | Overbought |
Ulta Beauty stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ulta Beauty shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ulta Beauty's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ulta Beauty's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ulta Beauty, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ulta Beauty's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.209 | EPS Estimate Current Year 25.49 | EPS Estimate Next Year 27 | Wall Street Target Price 573.98 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 7.53 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ulta Beauty based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ulta stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ulta Beauty over a specific investment horizon. Using Ulta Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ulta Beauty from the perspective of Ulta Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ulta Beauty using Ulta Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ulta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ulta Beauty's stock price.
Ulta Beauty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ulta Beauty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ulta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ulta Beauty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ulta Beauty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ulta Beauty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ulta Beauty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 457.4118 | Short Percent 0.0303 | Short Ratio 1.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 513.5776 |
Ulta Beauty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ulta Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ulta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ulta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ulta Beauty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ulta Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ulta Beauty.
Ulta Beauty Implied Volatility | 176.25 |
Ulta Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ulta Beauty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ulta Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ulta Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ulta Beauty's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ulta Beauty. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ulta Beauty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ulta because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ulta Beauty after-hype prediction price | USD 425.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ulta contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ulta Beauty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 11.02% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Ulta Beauty trading at USD 425.11, that is roughly USD 46.83 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ulta Beauty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ulta Beauty options at the current volatility level of 176.25%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ulta |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ulta Beauty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ulta Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ulta Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ulta Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ulta Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ulta Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ulta Beauty's historical news coverage. Ulta Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 423.43 and 428.21, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ulta Beauty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ulta Beauty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ulta Beauty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ulta Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ulta Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ulta Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.39 | 0.71 | 0.56 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
425.11 | 425.82 | 0.17 |
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Ulta Beauty Hype Timeline
Ulta Beauty is at this time traded for 425.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.71, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.56. Ulta is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 425.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 50.53%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Ulta Beauty is about 64.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 424.55. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 11.21 B. Net Income was 1.29 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.04 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Ulta Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ulta Beauty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ulta Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ulta Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how Ulta Beauty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ulta Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | 2.13 | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.08 | 1.85 | (1.74) | 6.68 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | (13.16) | 11 per month | 1.18 | 0.07 | 1.67 | (1.99) | 8.78 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.30) | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.1 | 1.74 | (1.57) | 4.68 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 3.41 | 12 per month | 1.45 | 0.16 | 3.25 | (3.39) | 22.86 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | (1.03) | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.03 | 3.01 | (2.78) | 7.78 | |
| RH | RH | (17.42) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.45 | (5.00) | 27.04 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | 0.38 | 10 per month | 2.10 | 0.13 | 4.25 | (4.15) | 13.12 |
Ulta Beauty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ulta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ulta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ulta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ulta Beauty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ulta Beauty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ulta Beauty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty based on analysis of Ulta Beauty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ulta Beauty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ulta Beauty's related companies. | 2010 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0101 | 0.00808 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.05 | 2.62 |
Story Coverage note for Ulta Beauty
The number of cover stories for Ulta Beauty depends on current market conditions and Ulta Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ulta Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ulta Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ulta Beauty Short Properties
Ulta Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ulta Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ulta Beauty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 766.6 M |
Check out Ulta Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Ulta Stock analysis
When running Ulta Beauty's price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ulta Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.209 | Earnings Share 26.02 | Revenue Per Share 227.31 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.102 | Return On Assets 0.1894 |
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.