JANUS US (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    1048579 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 24.77  0.21  0.85%

    JANUS US probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of JANUS US TWEN I ACC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify JANUS US time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like JANUS US odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    JANUS US Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     24.77 30 days 24.77  ABOUT 18.4%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of JANUS US to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 18.4% (This JANUS US TWEN I ACC probability density function shows the probability of JANUS US Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, JANUS US has beta of 0.1246 . This suggests as returns on market go up, JANUS US average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding JANUS US TWEN I ACC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally JANUS US TWEN I ACC has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     JANUS US Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.07
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.12
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =12.57
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.4

    JANUS US Alerts

    JANUS US Alerts and Suggestions

    JANUS US TWEN generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
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