IDFC Gov (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    108646 -- India Fund  

    INR 10.92  10.92  9,223,372,036,855%

    IDFC Gov probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of IDFC Gov Sec ST Reg Qtr Div performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify IDFC Gov time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like IDFC Gov odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    IDFC Gov Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10.92 30 days 10.92  ABOUT 30.85%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of IDFC Gov to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 30.85% (This IDFC Gov Sec ST Reg Qtr Div probability density function shows the probability of IDFC Gov Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, IDFC Gov Sec ST Reg Qtr Div has beta of -0.0281 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding IDFC Gov are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, IDFC Gov Sec ST Reg Qtr Div is likely to outperform the market. Additionally IDFC Gov Sec ST Reg Qtr Div has an alpha of 0.0118 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0118% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     IDFC Gov Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.011752
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.03
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =4.24
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.12

    IDFC Gov Alerts

    IDFC Gov Alerts and Suggestions

    IDFC Gov Sec has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
    The fund holds about 9.28% of its total net assets in cash

    Price Density Drivers

    IDFC Gov Health Indicators

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