WEL OP (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    11437840 -- Ireland Fund  

    CHF 13.33  0.42  3.25%

    WEL OP probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of WEL OP EM CHF S AC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify WEL OP time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like WEL OP odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    WEL OP Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     13.33 30 days 13.33  ABOUT 38.86%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of WEL OP to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 38.86% (This WEL OP EM CHF S AC probability density function shows the probability of WEL OP Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, WEL OP EM CHF S AC has beta of -0.6966 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding WEL OP are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, WEL OP EM CHF S AC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally WEL OP EM CHF S AC has an alpha of 0.3749 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3749% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     WEL OP Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.37
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.7
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =4.90
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.19

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