IDBI Gilt (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    118341 -- India Fund  

     14.55  0.12  0.83%

    IDBI Gilt probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify IDBI Gilt time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like IDBI Gilt odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    IDBI Gilt Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     14.55 30 days 14.55  ABOUT 6.5%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of IDBI Gilt to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 6.5% (This IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr probability density function shows the probability of IDBI Gilt Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr has beta of -0.0046 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding IDBI Gilt are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr is likely to outperform the market. Additionally IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     IDBI Gilt Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.02
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0046
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =6.76
    Ir
    Information ratio =1.52

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    IDBI Gilt Fund is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
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