IDBI Gilt (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    118341 -- India Fund  

     14.55  0.12  0.01%

    IDBI Gilt probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify IDBI Gilt time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like IDBI Gilt odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    IDBI Gilt Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     14.55 30 days 14.55  ABOUT 6.5%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of IDBI Gilt to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 6.5% (This IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr probability density function shows the probability of IDBI Gilt Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, IDBI Gilt has beta of 0.0131 . This suggests as returns on market go up, IDBI Gilt average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding IDBI Gilt Fund Dir Gr will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. IDBI Gilt Fund is significantly underperforming DOW.
     IDBI Gilt Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.02
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0131
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =6.76
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.54

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    IDBI Gilt Fund is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
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