POLAR CAP (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    12122045 -- Ireland Fund  

    EUR 8.74  1.06  13.80%

    POLAR CAP probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of POLAR CAP EM EUR I performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify POLAR CAP time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like POLAR CAP odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    POLAR CAP Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     8.74 30 days 8.74  ABOUT 19.1%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of POLAR CAP to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 19.1% (This POLAR CAP EM EUR I probability density function shows the probability of POLAR CAP Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, POLAR CAP EM EUR I has beta of -1.4437 . This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding POLAR CAP EM EUR I are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, POLAR CAP is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally POLAR CAP EM EUR I has an alpha of 0.6483 implying that it can potentially generate 0.6483% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     POLAR CAP Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.65
    β
    Beta against DOW=1.44
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =4.13
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.025572

    POLAR CAP Alerts

    POLAR CAP Alerts and Suggestions

    POLAR CAP EM generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using aroon oscillator and other momentum ratios.
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