POL EM (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    12381464 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 10.28  0.89  9.48%

    POL EM probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of POL EM MKT USD R AC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify POL EM time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like POL EM odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    POL EM Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10.28 30 days 10.28  ABOUT 14.74%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of POL EM to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 14.74% (This POL EM MKT USD R AC probability density function shows the probability of POL EM Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, POL EM MKT USD R AC has beta of -2.2494 . This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding POL EM MKT USD R AC are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, POL EM is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally POL EM MKT USD R AC has an alpha of 0.771 implying that it can potentially generate 0.771% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     POL EM Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.77
    β
    Beta against DOW=2.25
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =5.10
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.10

    Current Sentiment - 12381464

    POL EM MKT Investor Sentiment
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