POL EM (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    12381464 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 10.28  0.89  9.48%

    POL EM probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of POL EM MKT USD R AC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify POL EM time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like POL EM odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
    Symbol:
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    POL EM Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10.28 30 days 10.28  ABOUT 17.73%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of POL EM to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 17.73% (This POL EM MKT USD R AC probability density function shows the probability of POL EM Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, POL EM MKT USD R AC has beta of -0.2312 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding POL EM are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, POL EM MKT USD R AC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally POL EM MKT USD R AC has an alpha of 0.1228 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1228% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     POL EM Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.12
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.23
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =4.98
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.06

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    POL EM MKT is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
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