LIC MF (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    134878 -- India Fund  

    INR 18.77  0.26  1.37%

    LIC MF probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of LIC MF ULIS 10Y RP RC Dir HY Div performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify LIC MF time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like LIC MF odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    LIC MF Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     18.77 30 days 18.77  ABOUT 22.13%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of LIC MF to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 22.13% (This LIC MF ULIS 10Y RP RC Dir HY Div probability density function shows the probability of LIC MF Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, LIC MF ULIS 10Y RP RC Dir HY Div has beta of -1.0091 . This suggests Additionally LIC MF ULIS 10Y RP RC Dir HY Div has an alpha of 0.705 implying that it can potentially generate 0.705% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     LIC MF Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.70
    β
    Beta against DOW=1.01
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =10.08
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.25

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    The fund holds about 12.4% of its total net assets in cash
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
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