1361 (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    1361 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 99.45  0.90  0.90%

    1361 probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of 1361 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify 1361 time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like 1361 odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    1361 Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     99.45 30 days 99.45  ABOUT 24.64%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of 1361 to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 24.64% (This 1361 probability density function shows the probability of 1361 Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, 1361 has beta of -0.0912 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding 1361 are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, 1361 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. 1361 is significantly underperforming DOW.
     1361 Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.04
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.09
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =47.90
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.06

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