1361 (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    1361 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 99.45  0.90  0.90%

    1361 probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of 1361 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify 1361 time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like 1361 odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    1361 Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     99.45 30 days 99.45  ABOUT 18.86%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of 1361 to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 18.86% (This 1361 probability density function shows the probability of 1361 Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, 1361 has beta of -0.0236 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding 1361 are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, 1361 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally 1361 has an alpha of 0.0279 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0279% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     1361 Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.027891
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.02
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =50.91
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.42

    1361 Alerts

    1361 Alerts and Suggestions

    1361 is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    1361 generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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