POL GLB (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    19897176 -- Ireland Fund  

    EUR 11.98  0.64  5.64%

    POL GLB probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of POL GLB ALPH EUR R performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify POL GLB time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like POL GLB odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
    Symbol:
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    POL GLB Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     11.98 30 days 11.98  ABOUT 8.89%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of POL GLB to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 8.89% (This POL GLB ALPH EUR R probability density function shows the probability of POL GLB Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, POL GLB has beta of 0.3256 . This suggests as returns on market go up, POL GLB average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding POL GLB ALPH EUR R will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally POL GLB ALPH EUR R has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     POL GLB Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.2
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.33
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =5.74
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.06

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    POL GLB ALPH is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Commodity Channel Index module to use commodity channel index to analyze current equity momentum.
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