VAN US (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    2151915 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 165.00  14.75  9.82%

    VAN US probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of VAN US USD INV ACC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify VAN US time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like VAN US odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    VAN US Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     165.00 30 days 165.00  ABOUT 21.95%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of VAN US to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 21.95% (This VAN US USD INV ACC probability density function shows the probability of VAN US Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, VAN US has beta of 0.2449 . This suggests as returns on market go up, VAN US average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding VAN US USD INV ACC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VAN US USD INV ACC has an alpha of 0.2412 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2412% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     VAN US Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.24
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.24
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =75.09
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.06

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    VAN US USD is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
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