BRW US (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    23564676 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 9.44  0.82  7.99%

    BRW US probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of BRW US SML USD A AC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify BRW US time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like BRW US odds to be computed. Check also Trending Equities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    BRW US Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     9.44 30 days 9.44  ABOUT 28.65%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of BRW US to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 28.65% (This BRW US SML USD A AC probability density function shows the probability of BRW US Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, BRW US has beta of 0.0625 . This suggests as returns on market go up, BRW US average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding BRW US SML USD A AC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. BRW US SML is significantly underperforming DOW.
     BRW US Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.17
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.06
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =4.65
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.07

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    BRW US SML is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Check also Trending Equities. Please also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
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