Controladora Vuela (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.12

2CDA Stock  EUR 6.65  0.10  1.53%   
Controladora Vuela's future price is the expected price of Controladora Vuela instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Controladora Vuela Compaa performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Controladora Vuela Backtesting, Controladora Vuela Valuation, Controladora Vuela Correlation, Controladora Vuela Hype Analysis, Controladora Vuela Volatility, Controladora Vuela History as well as Controladora Vuela Performance.
  
Please specify Controladora Vuela's target price for which you would like Controladora Vuela odds to be computed.

Controladora Vuela Target Price Odds to finish over 13.12

The tendency of Controladora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over € 13.12  or more in 90 days
 6.65 90 days 13.12 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Controladora Vuela to move over € 13.12  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Controladora Vuela Compaa probability density function shows the probability of Controladora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Controladora Vuela Compaa price to stay between its current price of € 6.65  and € 13.12  at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.2 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Controladora Vuela Compaa has a beta of -0.72. This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Controladora Vuela are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Controladora Vuela Compaa is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Controladora Vuela Compaa has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Controladora Vuela Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Controladora Vuela

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Controladora Vuela Compaa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Controladora Vuela's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.056.609.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.285.838.38
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
3.996.549.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.546.586.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Controladora Vuela. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Controladora Vuela's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Controladora Vuela's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Controladora Vuela Compaa.

Controladora Vuela Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Controladora Vuela is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Controladora Vuela's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Controladora Vuela Compaa, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Controladora Vuela within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.25
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.72
σ
Overall volatility
0.65
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

Controladora Vuela Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Controladora Vuela for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Controladora Vuela Compaa can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Controladora Vuela generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has accumulated 161 M in total debt. Controladora Vuela Compaa has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Controladora Vuela until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Controladora Vuela's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Controladora Vuela Compaa sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Controladora to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Controladora Vuela's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 2.85 B. Net Loss for the year was (30 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 663 M.

Controladora Vuela Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Controladora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Controladora Vuela's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Controladora Vuela's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.2 B

Controladora Vuela Technical Analysis

Controladora Vuela's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Controladora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Controladora Vuela Compaa. In general, you should focus on analyzing Controladora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Controladora Vuela Predictive Forecast Models

Controladora Vuela's time-series forecasting models is one of many Controladora Vuela's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Controladora Vuela's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Controladora Vuela Compaa

Checking the ongoing alerts about Controladora Vuela for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Controladora Vuela Compaa help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Controladora Vuela generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has accumulated 161 M in total debt. Controladora Vuela Compaa has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Controladora Vuela until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Controladora Vuela's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Controladora Vuela Compaa sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Controladora to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Controladora Vuela's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 2.85 B. Net Loss for the year was (30 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 663 M.
Check out Controladora Vuela Backtesting, Controladora Vuela Valuation, Controladora Vuela Correlation, Controladora Vuela Hype Analysis, Controladora Vuela Volatility, Controladora Vuela History as well as Controladora Vuela Performance.
Note that the Controladora Vuela Compaa information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Controladora Vuela's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.

Complementary Tools for Controladora Stock analysis

When running Controladora Vuela's price analysis, check to measure Controladora Vuela's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Controladora Vuela is operating at the current time. Most of Controladora Vuela's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Controladora Vuela's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Controladora Vuela's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Controladora Vuela to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Controladora Vuela's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Controladora Vuela is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Controladora Vuela's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.