Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 16.91

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 22.03  0.09  0.41%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish below 16.91

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 16.91  or more in 30 days
 22.03 30 days 16.91 
UNDER 4%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 16.91  or more in 30 days from now is under 4% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 16.91  and its current price of $22.03 at the end of the 30-day period is about 64.08%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.9536 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Alcoa will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Alcoa is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Alcoa Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.07
β
Beta against DOW=1.95
σ
Overall volatility
=2.22
Ir
Information ratio =0.01

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

The company generated yearly revenue of 12.16B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (579M) with gross profit of 3.32B.
Latest headline from uspostnews.com: This Is Opportunity To Buy Alcoa Corporation , Dropbox - US Post News

AlcoaPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out5.00%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float6.46%
Float Shares185.04M
Shares Short Prior Month5.7M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.22M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.48M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.66%
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