Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 16.91

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 21.97  0.30  1.38%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish over 16.91

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 16.91  in 30 days
 21.97 30 days 16.91 
ROUGHLY 97.0%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to stay above $ 16.91  in 30 days from now is roughly 97.0% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 16.91  and its current price of $21.97 at the end of the 30-day period is about 63.25%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa Corporation has beta of -0.6011 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Alcoa are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Alcoa Corporation is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0521 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0521% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Alcoa Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.05
β
Beta against DOW=0.6
σ
Overall volatility
=2.22
Ir
Information ratio =0.0002

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company generated yearly revenue of 12.16B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (579M) with gross profit of 3.32B.
Latest headline from newssmooth.com: An In-Depth Look At Alcoa Corporation, - NewsSmooth

AlcoaPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out5.00%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float6.46%
Float Shares185.04M
Shares Short Prior Month5.7M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.59M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.39M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.88%
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