American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 33.08

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 25.83  0.27  1.03%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 33.08

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 33.08  after 30 days
 25.83 30 days 33.08 
ABOUT 79.37%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to stay under $ 33.08  after 30 days from now is about 79.37% (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Airlines Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of American Airlines price to stay between its current price of $ 25.83  and $ 33.08  at the end of the 30-day period is about 77.12%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.1771 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, American Airlines will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. American Airlines is significantly underperforming DOW.
 American Airlines Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.42
β
Beta against DOW=1.18
σ
Overall volatility
=2.58
Ir
Information ratio =0.2

American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions

American Airlines generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
American Airlines has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
American Airlines has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
The company has 34.75B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 638.4 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines has Current Ratio of 0.48 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
About 40.0% of American Airlines shares are held by company insiders

American AirlinesPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out4.63%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.40
Short Percent Of Float5.54%
Float Shares396.09M
Shares Short Prior Month22.35M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day8.22M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month6.57M
Date Short InterestJuly 31, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.57%
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