Aecom Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.17

ACM Stock  USD 97.31  0.45  0.46%   
Aecom Technology's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aecom Technology. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aecom Technology based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aecom Technology over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $97.5 is a CALL option contract on Aecom Technology's common stock with a strick price of 97.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 13:22:04 for $1.4 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.5, and an ask price of $1.8. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 16.96. View All Aecom options

Closest to current price Aecom long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Aecom Technology's future price is the expected price of Aecom Technology instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aecom Technology performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Aecom Technology Backtesting, Aecom Technology Valuation, Aecom Technology Correlation, Aecom Technology Hype Analysis, Aecom Technology Volatility, Aecom Technology History as well as Aecom Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Aecom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aecom Technology guide.
  
At this time, Aecom Technology's Price Earnings Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to 4.92, though Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (2.63). Please specify Aecom Technology's target price for which you would like Aecom Technology odds to be computed.

Aecom Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 27.17

The tendency of Aecom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 27.17  or more in 90 days
 97.31 90 days 27.17 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aecom Technology to drop to $ 27.17  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aecom Technology probability density function shows the probability of Aecom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aecom Technology price to stay between $ 27.17  and its current price of $97.31 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.35 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aecom Technology will likely underperform. Additionally Aecom Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Aecom Technology Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aecom Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aecom Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aecom Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
96.0997.2298.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
88.2289.35107.04
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
97.6098.7299.85
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
90.8999.88110.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aecom Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aecom Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aecom Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aecom Technology.

Aecom Technology Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aecom Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aecom Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aecom Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aecom Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.09
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.35
σ
Overall volatility
2.51
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Aecom Technology Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aecom Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aecom Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aecom Technology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 23224 shares by Troy Rudd of Aecom Technology subject to Rule 16b-3

Aecom Technology Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aecom Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aecom Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aecom Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding140.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B

Aecom Technology Technical Analysis

Aecom Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aecom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aecom Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aecom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aecom Technology Predictive Forecast Models

Aecom Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aecom Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aecom Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aecom Technology

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aecom Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aecom Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aecom Technology has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 23224 shares by Troy Rudd of Aecom Technology subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Aecom Technology is a strong investment it is important to analyze Aecom Technology's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Aecom Technology's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Aecom Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Aecom Technology Backtesting, Aecom Technology Valuation, Aecom Technology Correlation, Aecom Technology Hype Analysis, Aecom Technology Volatility, Aecom Technology History as well as Aecom Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Aecom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aecom Technology guide.
Note that the Aecom Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aecom Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Aecom Stock analysis

When running Aecom Technology's price analysis, check to measure Aecom Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aecom Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Aecom Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aecom Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aecom Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aecom Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aecom Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aecom Technology. If investors know Aecom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aecom Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.112
Dividend Share
0.76
Earnings Share
0.9
Revenue Per Share
108.008
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.153
The market value of Aecom Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aecom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aecom Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aecom Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aecom Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aecom Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aecom Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aecom Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aecom Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.