Autodesk Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 170.36

ADSK Stock  USD 260.97  0.70  0.27%   
Autodesk's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Autodesk. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Autodesk based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Autodesk over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $260.0 is a CALL option contract on Autodesk's common stock with a strick price of 260.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 14:32:33 for $1.97 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.85, and an ask price of $2.1. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 26.11. View All Autodesk options

Closest to current price Autodesk long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Autodesk's future price is the expected price of Autodesk instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Autodesk performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Autodesk Backtesting, Autodesk Valuation, Autodesk Correlation, Autodesk Hype Analysis, Autodesk Volatility, Autodesk History as well as Autodesk Performance.
For more information on how to buy Autodesk Stock please use our How to buy in Autodesk Stock guide.
  
At this time, Autodesk's Price Sales Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Fair Value is expected to rise to 30.74 this year, although the value of Price Cash Flow Ratio will most likely fall to 39.30. Please specify Autodesk's target price for which you would like Autodesk odds to be computed.

Autodesk Target Price Odds to finish below 170.36

The tendency of Autodesk Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 170.36  or more in 90 days
 260.97 90 days 170.36 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Autodesk to drop to $ 170.36  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Autodesk probability density function shows the probability of Autodesk Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Autodesk price to stay between $ 170.36  and its current price of $260.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.37 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.5 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Autodesk will likely underperform. Additionally Autodesk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Autodesk Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Autodesk

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autodesk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Autodesk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
259.21260.76262.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
235.17236.72287.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
260.24261.79263.34
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
219.46241.17267.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Autodesk. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Autodesk's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Autodesk's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Autodesk.

Autodesk Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Autodesk is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Autodesk's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Autodesk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Autodesk within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.50
σ
Overall volatility
9.53
Ir
Information ratio -0.0053

Autodesk Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Autodesk for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Autodesk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 2.63 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.35, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Autodesk has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Autodesk until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Autodesk's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Autodesk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Autodesk to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Autodesk's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 95.0% of Autodesk shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: 775 Shares in Autodesk, Inc. Bought by Compagnie Lombard Odier SCmA - Defense World

Autodesk Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Autodesk Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Autodesk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Autodesk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding216 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.2 B

Autodesk Technical Analysis

Autodesk's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Autodesk Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Autodesk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Autodesk Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Autodesk Predictive Forecast Models

Autodesk's time-series forecasting models is one of many Autodesk's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Autodesk's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Autodesk

Checking the ongoing alerts about Autodesk for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Autodesk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 2.63 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.35, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Autodesk has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Autodesk until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Autodesk's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Autodesk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Autodesk to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Autodesk's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 95.0% of Autodesk shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: 775 Shares in Autodesk, Inc. Bought by Compagnie Lombard Odier SCmA - Defense World
When determining whether Autodesk is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Autodesk Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Autodesk Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Autodesk Stock:

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When running Autodesk's price analysis, check to measure Autodesk's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Autodesk is operating at the current time. Most of Autodesk's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Autodesk's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Autodesk's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Autodesk to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Autodesk's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Autodesk. If investors know Autodesk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Autodesk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Earnings Share
4.19
Revenue Per Share
25.687
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.115
Return On Assets
0.0729
The market value of Autodesk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Autodesk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Autodesk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Autodesk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Autodesk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Autodesk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Autodesk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Autodesk is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Autodesk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.