American Financial Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 115.90415

AFG Stock  USD 136.80  2.80  2.09%   
American Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American Financial Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American Financial Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $135.0 is a CALL option contract on American Financial's common stock with a strick price of 135.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 11:21:52 for $2.7 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $5.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 13.05. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

American Financial's future price is the expected price of American Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Financial Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American Financial Backtesting, American Financial Valuation, American Financial Correlation, American Financial Hype Analysis, American Financial Volatility, American Financial History as well as American Financial Performance.
  
At this time, American Financial's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The American Financial's current Price To Book Ratio is estimated to increase to 2.48, while Price To Sales Ratio is projected to decrease to 0.67. Please specify American Financial's target price for which you would like American Financial odds to be computed.

American Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 115.90415

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 115.90  in 90 days
 136.80 90 days 115.90 
about 83.76
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Financial to stay above $ 115.90  in 90 days from now is about 83.76 (This American Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Financial price to stay between $ 115.90  and its current price of $136.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.47 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Financial has a beta of 0.72. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Financial Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Financial Group has an alpha of 0.1631, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
135.64136.72137.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
123.12142.89143.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
135.70136.78137.85
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
119.21131.00145.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Financial.

American Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.72
σ
Overall volatility
6.50
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

American Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Financial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 28th of February 2024 American Financial paid $ 2.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investors.com: American Financial Group Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure

American Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding84.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.7 B

American Financial Technical Analysis

American Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Financial Predictive Forecast Models

American Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Financial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 28th of February 2024 American Financial paid $ 2.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investors.com: American Financial Group Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure
When determining whether American Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Financial Backtesting, American Financial Valuation, American Financial Correlation, American Financial Hype Analysis, American Financial Volatility, American Financial History as well as American Financial Performance.
Note that the American Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis

When running American Financial's price analysis, check to measure American Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Financial is operating at the current time. Most of American Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Financial. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Dividend Share
2.68
Earnings Share
10.05
Revenue Per Share
87.981
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.087
The market value of American Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.