Ambarella Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 35.2
| AMBA Stock | USD 42.44 1.22 2.79% |
Closest to current price Ambarella long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Ambarella |
Ambarella Target Price Odds to finish over 35.2
The tendency of Ambarella Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 35.20 in 90 days |
| 42.44 | 90 days | 35.20 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ambarella to stay above $ 35.20 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ambarella probability density function shows the probability of Ambarella Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ambarella price to stay between $ 35.20 and its current price of $42.44 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.16 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ambarella will likely underperform. Additionally Ambarella has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Ambarella Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ambarella
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambarella. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ambarella's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ambarella Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ambarella is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ambarella's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ambarella, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ambarella within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.5 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Ambarella Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ambarella for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ambarella can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ambarella generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 226.47 M. Net Loss for the year was (169.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 211.96 M. | |
| Ambarella has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC Has 8.28 Million Stake in Ambarella, Inc. - Defense World |
Ambarella Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ambarella Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ambarella's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambarella's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 219.9 M |
Ambarella Technical Analysis
Ambarella's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ambarella Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ambarella. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ambarella Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ambarella Predictive Forecast Models
Ambarella's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ambarella's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ambarella's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ambarella
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ambarella for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ambarella help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ambarella generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 226.47 M. Net Loss for the year was (169.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 211.96 M. | |
| Ambarella has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC Has 8.28 Million Stake in Ambarella, Inc. - Defense World |
Check out Ambarella Backtesting, Ambarella Valuation, Ambarella Correlation, Ambarella Hype Analysis, Ambarella Volatility, Ambarella History as well as Ambarella Performance. For information on how to trade Ambarella Stock refer to our How to Trade Ambarella Stock guide.Note that the Ambarella information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ambarella's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Ambarella Stock analysis
When running Ambarella's price analysis, check to measure Ambarella's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ambarella is operating at the current time. Most of Ambarella's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ambarella's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ambarella's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ambarella to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ambarella's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambarella. If investors know Ambarella will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambarella listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.25) | Revenue Per Share 5.679 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.38) | Return On Assets (0.14) | Return On Equity (0.29) |
The market value of Ambarella is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambarella that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambarella's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambarella's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambarella's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambarella's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambarella's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambarella is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambarella's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.