Ambac Financial Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.7

AMBC Stock  USD 15.17  0.28  1.88%   
Ambac Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ambac Financial Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ambac Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ambac Financial Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Ambac Financial's common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 10:39:13 for $0.55 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.55, and an ask price of $0.75. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 29.31. View All Ambac options

Closest to current price Ambac long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Ambac Financial's future price is the expected price of Ambac Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ambac Financial Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ambac Financial Backtesting, Ambac Financial Valuation, Ambac Financial Correlation, Ambac Financial Hype Analysis, Ambac Financial Volatility, Ambac Financial History as well as Ambac Financial Performance.
  
At present, Ambac Financial's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 0.58, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (0.91). Please specify Ambac Financial's target price for which you would like Ambac Financial odds to be computed.

Ambac Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 19.7

The tendency of Ambac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 19.70  after 90 days
 15.17 90 days 19.70 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ambac Financial to stay under $ 19.70  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ambac Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Ambac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ambac Financial Group price to stay between its current price of $ 15.17  and $ 19.70  at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.14 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ambac Financial has a beta of 0.92. This suggests Ambac Financial Group market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ambac Financial is expected to follow. Additionally Ambac Financial Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Ambac Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ambac Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambac Financial Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ambac Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.3215.2117.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3516.2418.13
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.5515.4417.34
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.4717.0018.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ambac Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ambac Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ambac Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ambac Financial Group.

Ambac Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ambac Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ambac Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ambac Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ambac Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.92
σ
Overall volatility
0.55
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Ambac Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ambac Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ambac Financial Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ambac Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 3.5 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.17, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Ambac Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Ambac Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Ambac Financial Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Ambac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Ambac Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 87.0% of Ambac Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 6008 shares by David Trick of Ambac Financial subject to Rule 16b-3

Ambac Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ambac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ambac Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambac Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding46.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.2 B

Ambac Financial Technical Analysis

Ambac Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ambac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ambac Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ambac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ambac Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Ambac Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ambac Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ambac Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ambac Financial Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ambac Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ambac Financial Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ambac Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 3.5 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.17, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Ambac Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Ambac Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Ambac Financial Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Ambac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Ambac Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 87.0% of Ambac Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 6008 shares by David Trick of Ambac Financial subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Ambac Financial Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ambac Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ambac Financial Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ambac Financial Group Stock:
Check out Ambac Financial Backtesting, Ambac Financial Valuation, Ambac Financial Correlation, Ambac Financial Hype Analysis, Ambac Financial Volatility, Ambac Financial History as well as Ambac Financial Performance.
Note that the Ambac Financial Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ambac Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Ambac Stock analysis

When running Ambac Financial's price analysis, check to measure Ambac Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ambac Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ambac Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ambac Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ambac Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ambac Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ambac Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambac Financial. If investors know Ambac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambac Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.81)
Earnings Share
0.18
Revenue Per Share
5.894
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.42)
Return On Assets
0.0058
The market value of Ambac Financial Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambac Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambac Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambac Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambac Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambac Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambac Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambac Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.