Advanced Micro Devices Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.58

AMD Stock  USD 179.59  1.72  0.97%   
Advanced Micro's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Advanced Micro Devices. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Advanced Micro based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Advanced Micro Devices over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $180.0 is a CALL option contract on Advanced Micro's common stock with a strick price of 180.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:59:59 for $1.56 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.57, and an ask price of $1.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 47.51. View All Advanced options

Closest to current price Advanced long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Advanced Micro's future price is the expected price of Advanced Micro instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Advanced Micro Devices performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Advanced Micro Backtesting, Advanced Micro Valuation, Advanced Micro Correlation, Advanced Micro Hype Analysis, Advanced Micro Volatility, Advanced Micro History as well as Advanced Micro Performance.
  
At present, Advanced Micro's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 31.07, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (1.25). Please specify Advanced Micro's target price for which you would like Advanced Micro odds to be computed.

Advanced Micro Target Price Odds to finish below 16.58

The tendency of Advanced Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 16.58  or more in 90 days
 179.59 90 days 16.58 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Advanced Micro to drop to $ 16.58  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Advanced Micro Devices probability density function shows the probability of Advanced Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Advanced Micro Devices price to stay between $ 16.58  and its current price of $179.59 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.15 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.3 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Advanced Micro will likely underperform. Additionally Advanced Micro Devices has an alpha of 0.2591, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Advanced Micro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advanced Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
175.40178.78182.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
149.31152.69197.55
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
151.56154.95158.33
Details
47 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
117.49129.11143.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advanced Micro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advanced Micro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advanced Micro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Advanced Micro Devices.

Advanced Micro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Advanced Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Advanced Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Advanced Micro Devices, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Advanced Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.26
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.30
σ
Overall volatility
19.59
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Advanced Micro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Advanced Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Advanced Micro Devices can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Advanced Micro had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Nvidia Supplier SK Hynix to Launch 4B Semiconductor Facility in Indiana, Aims to Revitalize US Semiconductor Manufacturing

Advanced Micro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Advanced Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Advanced Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advanced Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments5.8 B

Advanced Micro Technical Analysis

Advanced Micro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Advanced Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Advanced Micro Devices. In general, you should focus on analyzing Advanced Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Advanced Micro Predictive Forecast Models

Advanced Micro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Advanced Micro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Advanced Micro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Advanced Micro Devices

Checking the ongoing alerts about Advanced Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Advanced Micro Devices help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Advanced Micro had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Nvidia Supplier SK Hynix to Launch 4B Semiconductor Facility in Indiana, Aims to Revitalize US Semiconductor Manufacturing
When determining whether Advanced Micro Devices is a strong investment it is important to analyze Advanced Micro's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Advanced Micro's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Advanced Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Advanced Stock analysis

When running Advanced Micro's price analysis, check to measure Advanced Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advanced Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Advanced Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advanced Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advanced Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advanced Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Is Advanced Micro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advanced Micro. If investors know Advanced will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advanced Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
48.693
Earnings Share
0.53
Revenue Per Share
14.052
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.102
Return On Assets
0.0037
The market value of Advanced Micro Devices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advanced that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advanced Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advanced Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advanced Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advanced Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advanced Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advanced Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advanced Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.