Amana Developing World Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 10.97

AMDWX Fund  USD 13.11  0.05  0.38%   
Amana Developing's future price is the expected price of Amana Developing instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Amana Developing World performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Amana Developing Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Amana Developing Correlation, Amana Developing Hype Analysis, Amana Developing Volatility, Amana Developing History as well as Amana Developing Performance.
  
Please specify Amana Developing's target price for which you would like Amana Developing odds to be computed.

Amana Developing Target Price Odds to finish below 10.97

The tendency of Amana Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 10.97  or more in 90 days
 13.11 90 days 10.97 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amana Developing to drop to $ 10.97  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Amana Developing World probability density function shows the probability of Amana Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amana Developing World price to stay between $ 10.97  and its current price of $13.11 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Amana Developing has a beta of 0.13. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amana Developing average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amana Developing World will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Amana Developing World has an alpha of 0.0824, implying that it can generate a 0.0824 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Amana Developing Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Amana Developing

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amana Developing World. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amana Developing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.4013.1113.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2712.9813.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
12.3613.0713.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.0413.1013.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amana Developing. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amana Developing's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amana Developing's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amana Developing World.

Amana Developing Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amana Developing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amana Developing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amana Developing World, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amana Developing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.13
σ
Overall volatility
0.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Amana Developing Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amana Developing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amana Developing World can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated0.0 ten year return of 0.0%
Amana Developing World holds about 21.98% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

Amana Developing Technical Analysis

Amana Developing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amana Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amana Developing World. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amana Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Amana Developing Predictive Forecast Models

Amana Developing's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amana Developing's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amana Developing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Amana Developing World

Checking the ongoing alerts about Amana Developing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amana Developing World help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund generated0.0 ten year return of 0.0%
Amana Developing World holds about 21.98% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

Complementary Tools for Amana Mutual Fund analysis

When running Amana Developing's price analysis, check to measure Amana Developing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amana Developing is operating at the current time. Most of Amana Developing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amana Developing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amana Developing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amana Developing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Amana Developing's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amana Developing is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amana Developing's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.