Amana Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 45.59

AMIGX Fund  USD 79.47  0.46  0.58%   
Amana Growth's future price is the expected price of Amana Growth instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Amana Growth Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Amana Growth Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Amana Growth Correlation, Amana Growth Hype Analysis, Amana Growth Volatility, Amana Growth History as well as Amana Growth Performance.
  
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Amana Growth Target Price Odds to finish over 45.59

The tendency of Amana Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 45.59  in 90 days
 79.47 90 days 45.59 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amana Growth to stay above $ 45.59  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Amana Growth Fund probability density function shows the probability of Amana Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amana Growth Fund price to stay between $ 45.59  and its current price of $79.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.4 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Amana Growth has a beta of 0.1. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amana Growth average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amana Growth Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Amana Growth Fund has an alpha of 0.1561, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Amana Growth Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Amana Growth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amana Growth Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amana Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
78.1179.0179.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
77.1378.0386.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
77.1878.0878.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
78.9279.0679.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amana Growth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amana Growth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amana Growth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amana Growth Fund.

Amana Growth Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amana Growth is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amana Growth's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amana Growth Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amana Growth within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.10
σ
Overall volatility
3.21
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

Amana Growth Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amana Growth for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amana Growth Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund holds 95.88% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Amana Growth Technical Analysis

Amana Growth's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amana Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amana Growth Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amana Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Amana Growth Predictive Forecast Models

Amana Growth's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amana Growth's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amana Growth's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Amana Growth Fund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Amana Growth for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amana Growth Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund holds 95.88% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Check out Amana Growth Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Amana Growth Correlation, Amana Growth Hype Analysis, Amana Growth Volatility, Amana Growth History as well as Amana Growth Performance.
Note that the Amana Growth Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amana Growth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Amana Mutual Fund analysis

When running Amana Growth's price analysis, check to measure Amana Growth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amana Growth is operating at the current time. Most of Amana Growth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amana Growth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amana Growth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amana Growth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Amana Growth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amana Growth is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amana Growth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.