Autonation Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.9
| AN Stock | USD 152.36 1.75 1.14% |
Closest to current price AutoNation long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
AutoNation |
AutoNation Target Price Odds to finish below 38.9
The tendency of AutoNation Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.90 or more in 90 days |
| 152.36 | 90 days | 38.90 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AutoNation to drop to $ 38.90 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AutoNation probability density function shows the probability of AutoNation Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AutoNation price to stay between $ 38.90 and its current price of $152.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.38 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon AutoNation has a beta of 0.5. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AutoNation average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AutoNation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AutoNation has an alpha of 0.0944, implying that it can generate a 0.0944 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AutoNation Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AutoNation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AutoNation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AutoNation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AutoNation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AutoNation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AutoNation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AutoNation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AutoNation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
AutoNation Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AutoNation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AutoNation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AutoNation reports about 72.6 M in cash with (89.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.93. | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Arizona State Retirement System Trims Stake in AutoNation, Inc. - Defense World |
AutoNation Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AutoNation Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AutoNation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AutoNation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.1 M |
AutoNation Technical Analysis
AutoNation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AutoNation Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AutoNation. In general, you should focus on analyzing AutoNation Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AutoNation Predictive Forecast Models
AutoNation's time-series forecasting models is one of many AutoNation's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AutoNation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AutoNation
Checking the ongoing alerts about AutoNation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AutoNation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AutoNation reports about 72.6 M in cash with (89.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.93. | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Arizona State Retirement System Trims Stake in AutoNation, Inc. - Defense World |
Check out AutoNation Backtesting, AutoNation Valuation, AutoNation Correlation, AutoNation Hype Analysis, AutoNation Volatility, AutoNation History as well as AutoNation Performance. To learn how to invest in AutoNation Stock, please use our How to Invest in AutoNation guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for AutoNation Stock analysis
When running AutoNation's price analysis, check to measure AutoNation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AutoNation is operating at the current time. Most of AutoNation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AutoNation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AutoNation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AutoNation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AutoNation's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AutoNation. If investors know AutoNation will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AutoNation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Earnings Share 22.72 | Revenue Per Share 604.235 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.011 | Return On Assets 0.0937 |
The market value of AutoNation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AutoNation that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AutoNation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AutoNation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AutoNation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AutoNation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AutoNation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AutoNation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AutoNation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.