Aran Research (Israel) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1469.0

ARAN Stock  ILA 2,139  14.00  0.66%   
Aran Research's future price is the expected price of Aran Research instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aran Research And performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Aran Research Backtesting, Aran Research Valuation, Aran Research Correlation, Aran Research Hype Analysis, Aran Research Volatility, Aran Research History as well as Aran Research Performance.
  
Please specify Aran Research's target price for which you would like Aran Research odds to be computed.

Aran Research Target Price Odds to finish below 1469.0

The tendency of Aran Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  1,469  or more in 90 days
 2,139 90 days 1,469 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aran Research to drop to  1,469  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aran Research And probability density function shows the probability of Aran Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aran Research And price to stay between  1,469  and its current price of 2139.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.01 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aran Research has a beta of 0.17. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aran Research average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aran Research And will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aran Research And has an alpha of 0.1063, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Aran Research Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aran Research

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aran Research And. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aran Research's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,1362,1392,142
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,7871,7902,353
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
2,0712,0732,076
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2,1212,1342,148
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aran Research. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aran Research's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aran Research's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aran Research And.

Aran Research Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aran Research is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aran Research's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aran Research And, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aran Research within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.11
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.17
σ
Overall volatility
93.29
Ir
Information ratio 0

Aran Research Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aran Research for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aran Research And can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aran Research And generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Aran Research And has accumulated about 53.03 M in cash with (23.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.83.
Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Aran Research Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aran Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aran Research's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aran Research's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.9 M

Aran Research Technical Analysis

Aran Research's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aran Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aran Research And. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aran Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aran Research Predictive Forecast Models

Aran Research's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aran Research's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aran Research's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aran Research And

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aran Research for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aran Research And help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aran Research And generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Aran Research And has accumulated about 53.03 M in cash with (23.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.83.
Roughly 57.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Check out Aran Research Backtesting, Aran Research Valuation, Aran Research Correlation, Aran Research Hype Analysis, Aran Research Volatility, Aran Research History as well as Aran Research Performance.
You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Aran Stock analysis

When running Aran Research's price analysis, check to measure Aran Research's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aran Research is operating at the current time. Most of Aran Research's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aran Research's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aran Research's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aran Research to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Aran Research's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aran Research is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aran Research's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.