Armour Residential Reit Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.34
| ARR Stock | USD 17.51 0.15 0.86% |
Closest to current price ARMOUR long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
ARMOUR |
ARMOUR Residential Target Price Odds to finish over 20.34
The tendency of ARMOUR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 20.34 or more in 90 days |
| 17.51 | 90 days | 20.34 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ARMOUR Residential to move over $ 20.34 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ARMOUR Residential REIT probability density function shows the probability of ARMOUR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ARMOUR Residential REIT price to stay between its current price of $ 17.51 and $ 20.34 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.07 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ARMOUR Residential will likely underperform. Additionally ARMOUR Residential REIT has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. ARMOUR Residential Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ARMOUR Residential
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARMOUR Residential REIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARMOUR Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ARMOUR Residential Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ARMOUR Residential is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ARMOUR Residential's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ARMOUR Residential REIT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ARMOUR Residential within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
ARMOUR Residential Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ARMOUR Residential for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ARMOUR Residential REIT can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ARMOUR Residential generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ARMOUR Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 449.67 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (67.92 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (192.1 M). | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 28th of March 2024 ARMOUR Residential paid $ 0.24 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from accesswire.com: CXApp Inc. Announces Record ARR Growth for Q423 Full Year 2023 |
ARMOUR Residential Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ARMOUR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ARMOUR Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ARMOUR Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 258.9 M |
ARMOUR Residential Technical Analysis
ARMOUR Residential's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ARMOUR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ARMOUR Residential REIT. In general, you should focus on analyzing ARMOUR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ARMOUR Residential Predictive Forecast Models
ARMOUR Residential's time-series forecasting models is one of many ARMOUR Residential's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ARMOUR Residential's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ARMOUR Residential REIT
Checking the ongoing alerts about ARMOUR Residential for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ARMOUR Residential REIT help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ARMOUR Residential generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ARMOUR Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 449.67 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (67.92 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (192.1 M). | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 28th of March 2024 ARMOUR Residential paid $ 0.24 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from accesswire.com: CXApp Inc. Announces Record ARR Growth for Q423 Full Year 2023 |
Check out ARMOUR Residential Backtesting, ARMOUR Residential Valuation, ARMOUR Residential Correlation, ARMOUR Residential Hype Analysis, ARMOUR Residential Volatility, ARMOUR Residential History as well as ARMOUR Residential Performance. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for ARMOUR Stock analysis
When running ARMOUR Residential's price analysis, check to measure ARMOUR Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARMOUR Residential is operating at the current time. Most of ARMOUR Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARMOUR Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARMOUR Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ARMOUR Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ARMOUR Residential. If investors know ARMOUR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ARMOUR Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.571 | Dividend Share 5 | Earnings Share (1.86) | Revenue Per Share (0.57) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.261 |
The market value of ARMOUR Residential REIT is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARMOUR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARMOUR Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARMOUR Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARMOUR Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARMOUR Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARMOUR Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARMOUR Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARMOUR Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.