Aspen Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 107.49

AZPN Stock  USD 213.47  5.56  2.67%   
Aspen Technology's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aspen Technology. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aspen Technology based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aspen Technology over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $210.0 is a CALL option contract on Aspen Technology's common stock with a strick price of 210.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:45:32 for $4.7 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.7, and an ask price of $5.8. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 26.33. View All Aspen options

Closest to current price Aspen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Aspen Technology's future price is the expected price of Aspen Technology instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aspen Technology performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Aspen Technology Backtesting, Aspen Technology Valuation, Aspen Technology Correlation, Aspen Technology Hype Analysis, Aspen Technology Volatility, Aspen Technology History as well as Aspen Technology Performance.
To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.
  
At this time, Aspen Technology's Price Fair Value is very stable compared to the past year. Please specify Aspen Technology's target price for which you would like Aspen Technology odds to be computed.

Aspen Technology Target Price Odds to finish over 107.49

The tendency of Aspen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 107.49  in 90 days
 213.47 90 days 107.49 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aspen Technology to stay above $ 107.49  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Aspen Technology probability density function shows the probability of Aspen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aspen Technology price to stay between $ 107.49  and its current price of $213.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.89 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aspen Technology will likely underperform. Additionally Aspen Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Aspen Technology Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aspen Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aspen Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
210.38212.34214.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
197.58199.54233.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
197.56199.52201.47
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
183.67201.83224.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aspen Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aspen Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aspen Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aspen Technology.

Aspen Technology Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aspen Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aspen Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aspen Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aspen Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.29
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.89
σ
Overall volatility
10.86
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Aspen Technology Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aspen Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aspen Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aspen Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.04 B. Net Loss for the year was (107.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M.
About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aspen Technologys investors will be pleased with their respectable 90 percent return over the last five years

Aspen Technology Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aspen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aspen Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aspen Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding64.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments241.2 M

Aspen Technology Technical Analysis

Aspen Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aspen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aspen Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aspen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aspen Technology Predictive Forecast Models

Aspen Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aspen Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aspen Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aspen Technology

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aspen Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aspen Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aspen Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.04 B. Net Loss for the year was (107.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M.
About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aspen Technologys investors will be pleased with their respectable 90 percent return over the last five years
When determining whether Aspen Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aspen Technology's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aspen Technology Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aspen Technology Stock:

Complementary Tools for Aspen Stock analysis

When running Aspen Technology's price analysis, check to measure Aspen Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspen Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Aspen Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspen Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspen Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspen Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Is Aspen Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.63)
Earnings Share
(1.35)
Revenue Per Share
16.424
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.059
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.