Booz Allen Hamilton Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 48.06

BAH Stock  USD 148.44  0.22  0.15%   
Booz Allen's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Booz Allen Hamilton. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Booz Allen based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Booz Allen Hamilton over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $150.0 is a CALL option contract on Booz Allen's common stock with a strick price of 150.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 13:44:55 for $2.35 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.95, and an ask price of $2.25. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 18.7. View All Booz options

Closest to current price Booz long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Booz Allen's future price is the expected price of Booz Allen instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Booz Allen Hamilton performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Booz Allen Backtesting, Booz Allen Valuation, Booz Allen Correlation, Booz Allen Hype Analysis, Booz Allen Volatility, Booz Allen History as well as Booz Allen Performance.
  
As of now, Booz Allen's Price Cash Flow Ratio is increasing as compared to previous years. Please specify Booz Allen's target price for which you would like Booz Allen odds to be computed.

Booz Allen Target Price Odds to finish below 48.06

The tendency of Booz Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 48.06  or more in 90 days
 148.44 90 days 48.06 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Booz Allen to drop to $ 48.06  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Booz Allen Hamilton probability density function shows the probability of Booz Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Booz Allen Hamilton price to stay between $ 48.06  and its current price of $148.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 83.17 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.03 suggesting Booz Allen Hamilton market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Booz Allen is expected to follow. Additionally Booz Allen Hamilton has an alpha of 0.1201, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Booz Allen Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Booz Allen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Booz Allen Hamilton. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Booz Allen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
146.60148.56150.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
133.60154.90156.86
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
146.50148.46150.42
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
121.17133.15147.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Booz Allen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Booz Allen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Booz Allen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Booz Allen Hamilton.

Booz Allen Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Booz Allen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Booz Allen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Booz Allen Hamilton, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Booz Allen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.12
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.03
σ
Overall volatility
9.23
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Booz Allen Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Booz Allen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Booz Allen Hamilton can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Booz Allen Hamilton has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of March 2024 Booz Allen paid $ 0.51 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: CCL, SPB, RARE, and VRSK are new additions to GS Long Duration Basket

Booz Allen Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Booz Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Booz Allen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Booz Allen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding132.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments404.9 M

Booz Allen Technical Analysis

Booz Allen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Booz Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Booz Allen Hamilton. In general, you should focus on analyzing Booz Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Booz Allen Predictive Forecast Models

Booz Allen's time-series forecasting models is one of many Booz Allen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Booz Allen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Booz Allen Hamilton

Checking the ongoing alerts about Booz Allen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Booz Allen Hamilton help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Booz Allen Hamilton has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of March 2024 Booz Allen paid $ 0.51 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: CCL, SPB, RARE, and VRSK are new additions to GS Long Duration Basket
When determining whether Booz Allen Hamilton offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Booz Allen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Booz Allen Hamilton Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Booz Allen Hamilton Stock:
Check out Booz Allen Backtesting, Booz Allen Valuation, Booz Allen Correlation, Booz Allen Hype Analysis, Booz Allen Volatility, Booz Allen History as well as Booz Allen Performance.
Note that the Booz Allen Hamilton information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Booz Allen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Booz Stock analysis

When running Booz Allen's price analysis, check to measure Booz Allen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Booz Allen is operating at the current time. Most of Booz Allen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Booz Allen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Booz Allen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Booz Allen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
AI Portfolio Architect
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
FinTech Suite
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Latest Portfolios
Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
AI Investment Finder
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Is Booz Allen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Booz Allen. If investors know Booz will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Booz Allen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.814
Dividend Share
1.88
Earnings Share
3.11
Revenue Per Share
78.848
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.129
The market value of Booz Allen Hamilton is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Booz that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Booz Allen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Booz Allen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Booz Allen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Booz Allen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Booz Allen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Booz Allen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Booz Allen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.