American Balanced Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 25.98
| BALFX Fund | USD 32.65 0.10 0.31% |
American |
American Balanced Target Price Odds to finish below 25.98
The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 25.98 or more in 90 days |
| 32.65 | 90 days | 25.98 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Balanced to drop to $ 25.98 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American Balanced Fund probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Balanced price to stay between $ 25.98 and its current price of $32.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.26 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Balanced has a beta of 0.76 suggesting as returns on the market go up, American Balanced average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Balanced Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Balanced Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. American Balanced Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Balanced
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Balanced Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Balanced is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Balanced's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Balanced Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Balanced within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0083 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.76 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
American Balanced Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Balanced for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Balanced can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: Is American Funds Balanced F1 a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now - Zacks Investment Research |
American Balanced Technical Analysis
American Balanced's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Balanced Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Balanced Predictive Forecast Models
American Balanced's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Balanced's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Balanced's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Balanced
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Balanced for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Balanced help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Is American Funds Balanced F1 a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now - Zacks Investment Research |
Check out American Balanced Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Balanced Correlation, American Balanced Hype Analysis, American Balanced Volatility, American Balanced History as well as American Balanced Performance. Note that the American Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.