Bhp Group Limited Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 58.41
| BHP Stock | USD 58.41 1.45 2.55% |
Closest to current price BHP long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
BHP |
BHP Group Target Price Odds to finish over 58.41
The tendency of BHP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 58.41 | 90 days | 58.41 | about 43.71 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BHP Group to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 43.71 (This BHP Group Limited probability density function shows the probability of BHP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.33 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BHP Group will likely underperform. Additionally BHP Group Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. BHP Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for BHP Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BHP Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BHP Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BHP Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BHP Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BHP Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BHP Group Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BHP Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
BHP Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BHP Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BHP Group Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BHP Group Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BHP Group Limited has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 28th of March 2024 BHP Group paid $ 1.44 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Chile needs permitting reforms to boost mining investment, BHP and Rio execs say |
BHP Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BHP Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BHP Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BHP Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.5 B |
BHP Group Technical Analysis
BHP Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BHP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BHP Group Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing BHP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BHP Group Predictive Forecast Models
BHP Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many BHP Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BHP Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BHP Group Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about BHP Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BHP Group Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BHP Group Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BHP Group Limited has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 28th of March 2024 BHP Group paid $ 1.44 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Chile needs permitting reforms to boost mining investment, BHP and Rio execs say |
Check out BHP Group Backtesting, BHP Group Valuation, BHP Group Correlation, BHP Group Hype Analysis, BHP Group Volatility, BHP Group History as well as BHP Group Performance. Note that the BHP Group Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BHP Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for BHP Stock analysis
When running BHP Group's price analysis, check to measure BHP Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BHP Group is operating at the current time. Most of BHP Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BHP Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BHP Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BHP Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is BHP Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BHP Group. If investors know BHP will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BHP Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.86) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 2.92 | Revenue Per Share 21.974 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.057 |
The market value of BHP Group Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BHP that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BHP Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BHP Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BHP Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BHP Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BHP Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BHP Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BHP Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.