China Overseas Land Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 18.49
| CAOVY Stock | USD 7.38 0.15 2.07% |
China |
China Overseas Target Price Odds to finish below 18.49
The tendency of China Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 18.49 after 90 days |
| 7.38 | 90 days | 18.49 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Overseas to stay under $ 18.49 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This China Overseas Land probability density function shows the probability of China Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Overseas Land price to stay between its current price of $ 7.38 and $ 18.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.68 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon China Overseas has a beta of 0.72 suggesting as returns on the market go up, China Overseas average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Overseas Land will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Overseas Land has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. China Overseas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Overseas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Overseas Land. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Overseas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Overseas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Overseas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Overseas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Overseas Land, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Overseas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
China Overseas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Overseas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Overseas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.9 B |
China Overseas Technical Analysis
China Overseas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Overseas Land. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Overseas Predictive Forecast Models
China Overseas' time-series forecasting models is one of many China Overseas' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Overseas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Overseas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Overseas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Overseas options trading.
Check out China Overseas Backtesting, China Overseas Valuation, China Overseas Correlation, China Overseas Hype Analysis, China Overseas Volatility, China Overseas History as well as China Overseas Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for China Pink Sheet analysis
When running China Overseas' price analysis, check to measure China Overseas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Overseas is operating at the current time. Most of China Overseas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Overseas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Overseas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Overseas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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