Cathay General Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 38.57

CATY Stock  USD 37.83  0.41  1.07%   
Cathay General's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Cathay General Bancorp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Cathay General based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Cathay General Bancorp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Cathay General's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-21 at 10:20:30 for $1.0 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $4.7. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 89.19. View All Cathay options

Closest to current price Cathay long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Cathay General's future price is the expected price of Cathay General instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cathay General Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Cathay General Backtesting, Cathay General Valuation, Cathay General Correlation, Cathay General Hype Analysis, Cathay General Volatility, Cathay General History as well as Cathay General Performance.
  
At this time, Cathay General's Price Earnings Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price To Sales Ratio is likely to rise to 3.62 in 2024, whereas Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 7.12 in 2024. Please specify Cathay General's target price for which you would like Cathay General odds to be computed.

Cathay General Target Price Odds to finish over 38.57

The tendency of Cathay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 38.57  or more in 90 days
 37.83 90 days 38.57 
about 81.1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cathay General to move over $ 38.57  or more in 90 days from now is about 81.1 (This Cathay General Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Cathay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cathay General Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 37.83  and $ 38.57  at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.51 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.9 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cathay General will likely underperform. Additionally Cathay General Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Cathay General Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cathay General

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay General Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cathay General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.8837.8339.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.2739.2241.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
34.7736.7338.68
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.9737.3341.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cathay General. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cathay General's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cathay General's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cathay General Bancorp.

Cathay General Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cathay General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cathay General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cathay General Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cathay General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.46
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.90
σ
Overall volatility
2.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

Cathay General Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cathay General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cathay General Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cathay General generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 11th of March 2024 Cathay General paid $ 0.34 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Cathay General Bancorp Cut to Sell at StockNews.com - MarketBeat

Cathay General Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cathay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cathay General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cathay General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding72.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments-174 M

Cathay General Technical Analysis

Cathay General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cathay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cathay General Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cathay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cathay General Predictive Forecast Models

Cathay General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cathay General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cathay General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cathay General Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cathay General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cathay General Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cathay General generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 11th of March 2024 Cathay General paid $ 0.34 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Cathay General Bancorp Cut to Sell at StockNews.com - MarketBeat
When determining whether Cathay General Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cathay General's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cathay General Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cathay General Bancorp Stock:

Complementary Tools for Cathay Stock analysis

When running Cathay General's price analysis, check to measure Cathay General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cathay General is operating at the current time. Most of Cathay General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cathay General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cathay General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cathay General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cathay General's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cathay General. If investors know Cathay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cathay General listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Dividend Share
1.36
Earnings Share
4.86
Revenue Per Share
10.804
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Cathay General Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cathay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cathay General's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cathay General's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cathay General's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cathay General's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cathay General's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cathay General is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cathay General's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.