Challenger Ltd Adr Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 44.64
| CFIGY Stock | USD 43.70 0.00 0.00% |
Challenger |
Challenger Target Price Odds to finish below 44.64
The tendency of Challenger Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 44.64 after 90 days |
| 43.70 | 90 days | 44.64 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Challenger to stay under $ 44.64 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Challenger Ltd ADR probability density function shows the probability of Challenger Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Challenger ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 43.70 and $ 44.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.42 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Challenger Ltd ADR has a beta of -0.0292 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Challenger are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Challenger Ltd ADR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Challenger Ltd ADR has an alpha of 0.0222, implying that it can generate a 0.0222 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Challenger Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Challenger
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Challenger ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Challenger's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Challenger Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Challenger is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Challenger's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Challenger Ltd ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Challenger within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Challenger Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Challenger for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Challenger ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Genworth Financial Inc Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript Highlights Strong Performance ... |
Challenger Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Challenger Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Challenger's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Challenger's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 678.1 M |
Challenger Technical Analysis
Challenger's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Challenger Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Challenger Ltd ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Challenger Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Challenger Predictive Forecast Models
Challenger's time-series forecasting models is one of many Challenger's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Challenger's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Challenger ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about Challenger for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Challenger ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Genworth Financial Inc Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript Highlights Strong Performance ... |
Check out Challenger Backtesting, Challenger Valuation, Challenger Correlation, Challenger Hype Analysis, Challenger Volatility, Challenger History as well as Challenger Performance. Note that the Challenger ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Challenger's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Challenger Pink Sheet analysis
When running Challenger's price analysis, check to measure Challenger's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Challenger is operating at the current time. Most of Challenger's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Challenger's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Challenger's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Challenger to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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