The Chefs Warehouse Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.45

CHEF Stock  USD 37.95  1.49  4.09%   
Chefs Warehouse's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on The Chefs Warehouse. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Chefs Warehouse based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in The Chefs Warehouse over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Chefs Warehouse's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-21 at 15:50:08 for $0.55 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 31.47. View All Chefs options

Closest to current price Chefs long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Chefs Warehouse's future price is the expected price of Chefs Warehouse instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of The Chefs Warehouse performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Chefs Warehouse Backtesting, Chefs Warehouse Valuation, Chefs Warehouse Correlation, Chefs Warehouse Hype Analysis, Chefs Warehouse Volatility, Chefs Warehouse History as well as Chefs Warehouse Performance.
  
At this time, Chefs Warehouse's Price Earnings Ratio is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Chefs Warehouse's current Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 31.63, while Price To Sales Ratio is projected to decrease to 0.76. Please specify Chefs Warehouse's target price for which you would like Chefs Warehouse odds to be computed.

Chefs Warehouse Target Price Odds to finish below 33.45

The tendency of Chefs Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 33.45  or more in 90 days
 37.95 90 days 33.45 
about 46.06
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chefs Warehouse to drop to $ 33.45  or more in 90 days from now is about 46.06 (This The Chefs Warehouse probability density function shows the probability of Chefs Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chefs Warehouse price to stay between $ 33.45  and its current price of $37.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.12 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Chefs Warehouse will likely underperform. Additionally The Chefs Warehouse has an alpha of 0.2506, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Chefs Warehouse Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chefs Warehouse

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chefs Warehouse. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chefs Warehouse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.9438.1740.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.1643.0745.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
35.8338.0640.30
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.2744.2549.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chefs Warehouse. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chefs Warehouse's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chefs Warehouse's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Chefs Warehouse.

Chefs Warehouse Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chefs Warehouse is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chefs Warehouse's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Chefs Warehouse, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chefs Warehouse within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.25
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.40
σ
Overall volatility
3.36
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Chefs Warehouse Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chefs Warehouse for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chefs Warehouse can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chefs Warehouse is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The Chefs Warehouse was previously known as LMKG Old and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol LMKG.
Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Kraft Heinz Gains From Pricing Actions Growth Pillars

Chefs Warehouse Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chefs Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chefs Warehouse's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chefs Warehouse's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding45.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments49.9 M

Chefs Warehouse Technical Analysis

Chefs Warehouse's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chefs Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Chefs Warehouse. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chefs Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chefs Warehouse Predictive Forecast Models

Chefs Warehouse's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chefs Warehouse's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chefs Warehouse's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chefs Warehouse

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chefs Warehouse for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chefs Warehouse help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chefs Warehouse is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The Chefs Warehouse was previously known as LMKG Old and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol LMKG.
Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Kraft Heinz Gains From Pricing Actions Growth Pillars
When determining whether Chefs Warehouse is a strong investment it is important to analyze Chefs Warehouse's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Chefs Warehouse's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Chefs Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Chefs Warehouse Backtesting, Chefs Warehouse Valuation, Chefs Warehouse Correlation, Chefs Warehouse Hype Analysis, Chefs Warehouse Volatility, Chefs Warehouse History as well as Chefs Warehouse Performance.
Note that the Chefs Warehouse information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Chefs Warehouse's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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When running Chefs Warehouse's price analysis, check to measure Chefs Warehouse's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chefs Warehouse is operating at the current time. Most of Chefs Warehouse's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chefs Warehouse's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chefs Warehouse's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chefs Warehouse to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chefs Warehouse's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chefs Warehouse. If investors know Chefs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chefs Warehouse listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.11)
Earnings Share
0.88
Revenue Per Share
91.242
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.201
Return On Assets
0.0434
The market value of Chefs Warehouse is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chefs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chefs Warehouse's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chefs Warehouse's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chefs Warehouse's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chefs Warehouse's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chefs Warehouse's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chefs Warehouse is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chefs Warehouse's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.