Cme Group Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 209.57

CME Stock  USD 218.89  1.39  0.64%   
CME's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on CME Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of CME based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in CME Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-22 CALL at $220.0 is a CALL option contract on CME's common stock with a strick price of 220.0 expiring on 2024-03-22. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-15 at 15:56:38 for $1.35 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.15, and an ask price of $1.4. The implied volatility as of the 18th of March 2024 is 21.03. View All CME options

Closest to current price CME long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

CME's future price is the expected price of CME instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CME Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CME Backtesting, CME Valuation, CME Correlation, CME Hype Analysis, CME Volatility, CME History as well as CME Performance.
  
At present, CME's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Book Ratio is expected to grow to 3.80, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 8.05. Please specify CME's target price for which you would like CME odds to be computed.

CME Target Price Odds to finish over 209.57

The tendency of CME Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 209.57  in 90 days
 218.89 90 days 209.57 
about 40.84
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CME to stay above $ 209.57  in 90 days from now is about 40.84 (This CME Group probability density function shows the probability of CME Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CME Group price to stay between $ 209.57  and its current price of $218.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon CME has a beta of 0.28 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CME average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CME Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0196, implying that it can generate a 0.0196 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CME Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CME

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CME Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CME's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CME in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
216.73217.84218.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
195.75218.76219.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
215.76216.87217.97
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
204.56224.79249.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CME. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CME's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CME's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CME Group.

CME Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CME is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CME's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CME Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CME within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.02
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.28
σ
Overall volatility
7.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

CME Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CME for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CME Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CME Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from ajc.com: Stock market today Wall Street slips away from records after mixed data on the economy

CME Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CME Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CME's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CME's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding359.5 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

CME Technical Analysis

CME's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CME Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CME Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing CME Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CME Predictive Forecast Models

CME's time-series forecasting models is one of many CME's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CME's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CME Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about CME for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CME Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CME Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from ajc.com: Stock market today Wall Street slips away from records after mixed data on the economy
When determining whether CME Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze CME's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CME's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding CME Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for CME Stock analysis

When running CME's price analysis, check to measure CME's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CME is operating at the current time. Most of CME's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CME's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CME's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CME to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CME's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CME. If investors know CME will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CME listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.276
Dividend Share
4.4
Earnings Share
8.87
Revenue Per Share
15.512
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.192
The market value of CME Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CME that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CME's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CME's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CME's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CME's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CME's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CME is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CME's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.