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American Funds Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 17.93

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CPGAX -- USA Fund  

USD 17.27  0.42  2.49%

American Funds probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Funds Global Growth Po performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Funds time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Funds odds to be computed. Continue to American Funds Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Funds Correlation, American Funds Hype Analysis, American Funds Volatility, American Funds History as well as American Funds Performance.
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American Funds Target Price Odds to finish over 17.93

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 17.93  or more in 30 days
 17.27 30 days 17.93 
about 33.73
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Funds to move over $ 17.93  or more in 30 days from now is about 33.73 (This American Funds Global Growth Po probability density function shows the probability of American Funds Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of American Funds Global price to stay between its current price of $ 17.27  and $ 17.93  at the end of the 30-day period is about 61.91 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, American Funds has beta of 0.4896 . This suggests as returns on market go up, American Funds average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding American Funds Global Growth Po will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. American Funds Global is significantly underperforming DOW.
 American Funds Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.08
β
Beta against DOW=0.49
σ
Overall volatility
=0.31
Ir
Information ratio =0.05

American Funds Alerts and Suggestions

American Funds generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
American Funds Global generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund holds about 6.38% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

American FundsPrice Density Drivers