Carvana Co Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 87.21

CVNA Stock  USD 87.91  2.40  2.66%   
Carvana's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Carvana Co. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Carvana based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Carvana Co over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $88.0 is a CALL option contract on Carvana's common stock with a strick price of 88.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:54:19 for $2.8 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.7, and an ask price of $3.7. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 71.86. View All Carvana options

Closest to current price Carvana long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Carvana's future price is the expected price of Carvana instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Carvana Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Carvana Backtesting, Carvana Valuation, Carvana Correlation, Carvana Hype Analysis, Carvana Volatility, Carvana History as well as Carvana Performance.
  
At present, Carvana's Price Earnings Ratio is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Sales Ratio is expected to grow to 1,035, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (224.15). Please specify Carvana's target price for which you would like Carvana odds to be computed.

Carvana Target Price Odds to finish below 87.21

The tendency of Carvana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 87.21  or more in 90 days
 87.91 90 days 87.21 
under 95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carvana to drop to $ 87.21  or more in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Carvana Co probability density function shows the probability of Carvana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carvana price to stay between $ 87.21  and its current price of $87.91 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.0 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Carvana will likely underperform. Additionally Carvana Co has an alpha of 0.3404, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Carvana Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Carvana

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carvana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carvana's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
80.4986.8993.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.0352.4397.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
86.9093.2999.69
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
36.6540.2844.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carvana. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carvana's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carvana's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Carvana.

Carvana Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carvana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carvana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carvana Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carvana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.34
β
Beta against NYSE Composite4.00
σ
Overall volatility
16.50
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Carvana Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carvana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carvana can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carvana is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Carvana appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Carvana Stock Dips While Market Gains Key Facts

Carvana Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carvana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carvana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carvana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding200.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments896 M

Carvana Technical Analysis

Carvana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carvana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carvana Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carvana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Carvana Predictive Forecast Models

Carvana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carvana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carvana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Carvana

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carvana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carvana help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carvana is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Carvana appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from zacks.com: Carvana Stock Dips While Market Gains Key Facts
When determining whether Carvana offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Carvana's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Carvana Co Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Carvana Co Stock:
Check out Carvana Backtesting, Carvana Valuation, Carvana Correlation, Carvana Hype Analysis, Carvana Volatility, Carvana History as well as Carvana Performance.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

Complementary Tools for Carvana Stock analysis

When running Carvana's price analysis, check to measure Carvana's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carvana is operating at the current time. Most of Carvana's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carvana's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carvana's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carvana to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carvana's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carvana. If investors know Carvana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carvana listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(4.18)
Revenue Per Share
98.525
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.15)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
Return On Equity
(12.69)
The market value of Carvana is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carvana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carvana's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carvana's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carvana's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carvana's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carvana's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carvana is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carvana's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.