Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.42

EC Stock  USD 11.33  0.35  3.19%   
Ecopetrol's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ecopetrol SA ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ecopetrol based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ecopetrol SA ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Ecopetrol's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-26 at 10:25:08 for $0.07 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.05. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 39.44. View All Ecopetrol options

Closest to current price Ecopetrol long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Ecopetrol's future price is the expected price of Ecopetrol instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ecopetrol SA ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ecopetrol Backtesting, Ecopetrol Valuation, Ecopetrol Correlation, Ecopetrol Hype Analysis, Ecopetrol Volatility, Ecopetrol History as well as Ecopetrol Performance.
  
At present, Ecopetrol's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 25.42, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (0.97). Please specify Ecopetrol's target price for which you would like Ecopetrol odds to be computed.

Ecopetrol Target Price Odds to finish over 18.42

The tendency of Ecopetrol Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 18.42  or more in 90 days
 11.33 90 days 18.42 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ecopetrol to move over $ 18.42  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Ecopetrol SA ADR probability density function shows the probability of Ecopetrol Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ecopetrol SA ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 11.33  and $ 18.42  at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.1 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Ecopetrol has a beta of 0.85 suggesting Ecopetrol SA ADR market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ecopetrol is expected to follow. Additionally Ecopetrol SA ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Ecopetrol Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ecopetrol

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ecopetrol SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ecopetrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.7511.3212.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6112.1813.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.1811.7513.33
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
11.7712.9314.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ecopetrol. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ecopetrol's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ecopetrol's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ecopetrol SA ADR.

Ecopetrol Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ecopetrol is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ecopetrol's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ecopetrol SA ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ecopetrol within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.85
σ
Overall volatility
0.55
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Ecopetrol Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ecopetrol for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ecopetrol SA ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ecopetrol SA ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ecopetrol SA ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ecopetrol Board Blasts Anti-Oil President Petros Nominees as Unfit

Ecopetrol Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ecopetrol Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ecopetrol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ecopetrol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments14.2 T

Ecopetrol Technical Analysis

Ecopetrol's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ecopetrol Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ecopetrol SA ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ecopetrol Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ecopetrol Predictive Forecast Models

Ecopetrol's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ecopetrol's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ecopetrol's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ecopetrol SA ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ecopetrol for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ecopetrol SA ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ecopetrol SA ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ecopetrol SA ADR has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ecopetrol Board Blasts Anti-Oil President Petros Nominees as Unfit
When determining whether Ecopetrol SA ADR offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ecopetrol's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock:
Check out Ecopetrol Backtesting, Ecopetrol Valuation, Ecopetrol Correlation, Ecopetrol Hype Analysis, Ecopetrol Volatility, Ecopetrol History as well as Ecopetrol Performance.
Note that the Ecopetrol SA ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ecopetrol's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for Ecopetrol Stock analysis

When running Ecopetrol's price analysis, check to measure Ecopetrol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ecopetrol is operating at the current time. Most of Ecopetrol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ecopetrol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ecopetrol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ecopetrol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ecopetrol's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ecopetrol. If investors know Ecopetrol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ecopetrol listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Earnings Share
2.46
Revenue Per Share
34.8 K
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Return On Assets
0.0881
The market value of Ecopetrol SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ecopetrol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ecopetrol's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ecopetrol's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ecopetrol's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ecopetrol's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ecopetrol's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ecopetrol is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ecopetrol's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.