MFS Emerging Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 6.89

EMLIX -- USA Fund  

USD 6.79  0.09  1.31%

MFS Emerging probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of MFS Emerging Markets Debt Local performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify MFS Emerging time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like MFS Emerging odds to be computed. Additionally see MFS Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, MFS Emerging Correlation, MFS Emerging Hype Analysis, MFS Emerging Volatility, MFS Emerging History as well as MFS Emerging Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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MFS Emerging Target Price Odds to finish below 6.89

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 6.89  after 30 days
 6.79 30 days 6.89 
about 80.91
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of MFS Emerging to stay under $ 6.89  after 30 days from now is about 80.91 (This MFS Emerging Markets Debt Local probability density function shows the probability of MFS Emerging Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of MFS Emerging Markets price to stay between its current price of $ 6.79  and $ 6.89  at the end of the 30-day period is about 46.49 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, MFS Emerging has beta of 0.0729 suggesting as returns on market go up, MFS Emerging average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding MFS Emerging Markets Debt Local will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. MFS Emerging Markets is significantly underperforming DOW.
 MFS Emerging Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.02
β
Beta against DOW=0.07
σ
Overall volatility
=0.08
Ir
Information ratio =0.26

MFS Emerging Alerts and Suggestions

MFS Emerging Markets generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The fund retains about 45.2% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

MFS EmergingPrice Density Drivers

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