MFS Emerging Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 6.88

EMLKX -- USA Fund  

USD 6.90  0.05  0.73%

MFS Emerging probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of MFS Emerging Markets Debt Local performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify MFS Emerging time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like MFS Emerging odds to be computed. Additionally see MFS Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, MFS Emerging Correlation, MFS Emerging Hype Analysis, MFS Emerging Volatility, MFS Emerging History as well as MFS Emerging Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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MFS Emerging Target Price Odds to finish over 6.88

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 6.88  in 30 days
 6.90 30 days 6.88 
about 35.01
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of MFS Emerging to stay above $ 6.88  in 30 days from now is about 35.01 (This MFS Emerging Markets Debt Local probability density function shows the probability of MFS Emerging Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of MFS Emerging Markets price to stay between $ 6.88  and its current price of $6.9 at the end of the 30-day period is about 8.96 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, MFS Emerging has beta of 0.1324 suggesting as returns on market go up, MFS Emerging average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding MFS Emerging Markets Debt Local will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. MFS Emerging Markets is significantly underperforming DOW.
 MFS Emerging Price Density 
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.13
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.27

MFS Emerging Alerts and Suggestions

The fund generated five year return of -1.0%
MFS Emerging Markets retains about 45.2% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

MFS EmergingPrice Density Drivers